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Capability frontier over time

Each Epoch benchmark, plotted on the release date of every model that's been scored on it. As newer models arrive the ceiling of what's been achieved keeps rising — a real trend, distinct from and often mistaken for individual models improving over time.

Terminal-Bench — models on arrival

One point per model at its release date. The line traces the best-known score at each moment.

0%25%50%75%100%202520262027Model release dateScore (%)gemini-2.5-flash Released: Jun 2025 Score: 17.1% 95% CI: [14.6%, 19.6%] Date source: curatedgemini-2.5-pro Released: Jun 2025 Score: 32.6% 95% CI: [29.6%, 35.7%] Date source: curatedgrok-4-0709 Released: Jul 2025 Score: 27.2% 95% CI: [24.1%, 30.3%] Date source: curatedQwen3-Coder-480B-A35B-Instruct Released: Jul 2025 Score: 27.2% 95% CI: [24.6%, 29.8%] Date source: curatedclaude-opus-4-1-20250805 Released: Aug 2025 Score: 38.0% 95% CI: [35.4%, 40.6%] Date source: curatedgpt-oss-120b Released: Aug 2025 Score: 18.7% 95% CI: [16.0%, 21.4%] Date source: curatedgpt-oss-20b Released: Aug 2025 Score: 3.4% 95% CI: [2.0%, 4.8%] Date source: curatedgpt-5-nano-2025-08-07 Released: Aug 2025 Score: 21.8% 95% CI: [19.0%, 24.6%] Date source: curatedgpt-5-2025-08-07 Released: Aug 2025 Score: 49.6% 95% CI: [46.7%, 52.5%] Date source: curatedgpt-5gpt-5-mini-2025-08-07 Released: Aug 2025 Score: 34.8% 95% CI: [32.1%, 37.5%] Date source: curatedgrok-code-fast-1 Released: Aug 2025 Score: 25.8% 95% CI: [23.2%, 28.5%] Date source: curatedgemini-2.5-flash-preview-09-2025 Released: Sep 2025 Score: 17.1% 95% CI: [14.6%, 19.6%] Date source: name-suffixclaude-sonnet-4-5-20250929 Released: Sep 2025 Score: 46.5% 95% CI: [44.2%, 48.9%] Date source: curatedclaude-haiku-4-5-20251001 Released: Oct 2025 Score: 35.5% 95% CI: [32.6%, 38.4%] Date source: curatedMiniMax-M2 Released: Oct 2025 Score: 30.0% 95% CI: [27.3%, 32.8%] Date source: curatedclaude-opus-4-5-20251101 Released: Nov 2025 Score: 63.1% 95% CI: [60.4%, 65.8%] Date source: name-suffixclaude-opus-4-5-20251101kimi-k2-thinking Released: Nov 2025 Score: 35.7% 95% CI: [32.9%, 38.6%] Date source: huggingface-createdgpt-5.1-2025-11-13 Released: Nov 2025 Score: 47.6% 95% CI: [44.8%, 50.4%] Date source: name-suffixglm-4.6 Released: Dec 2025 Score: 24.5% 95% CI: [22.1%, 27.0%] Date source: huggingface-createdgpt-5.2-2025-12-11 Released: Dec 2025 Score: 64.9% 95% CI: [62.2%, 67.7%] Date source: name-suffixgpt-5.2MiniMax-M2.1 Released: Dec 2025 Score: 36.6% 95% CI: [33.7%, 39.5%] Date source: huggingface-createdglm-4.7 Released: Dec 2025 Score: 33.4% 95% CI: [30.5%, 36.2%] Date source: huggingface-createdkimi-k2.5 Released: Jan 2026 Score: 43.2% 95% CI: [40.3%, 46.1%] Date source: huggingface-createdglm-5 Released: Feb 2026 Score: 52.4% 95% CI: [49.8%, 55.0%] Date source: huggingface-createdMiniMax-M2.5 Released: Feb 2026 Score: 42.7% 95% CI: [39.9%, 45.5%] Date source: huggingface-createdqwen3.5-9B Released: Feb 2026 Score: 9.2% 95% CI: [6.9%, 11.6%] Date source: huggingface-createdMiniMax-M2.7 Released: Apr 2026 Score: 45.1% Date source: huggingface-createdqwen3.6-35b-a3b Released: Apr 2026 Score: 24.6% 95% CI: [21.4%, 27.8%] Date source: huggingface-createdclaude-opus-4-6 Released: Sep 2026 Score: 79.8% 95% CI: [78.2%, 81.4%] Date source: lmarena-first-seenclaude-opus-4-6gpt-5.5 Released: Sep 2026 Score: 84.7% 95% CI: [82.6%, 86.8%] Date source: lmarena-first-seengpt-5.5gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 Released: Sep 2026 Score: 81.8% 95% CI: [79.8%, 83.8%] Date source: lmarena-first-seenclaude-opus-4-7 Released: Sep 2026 Score: 80.2% 95% CI: [78.1%, 82.3%] Date source: lmarena-first-seenclaude-sonnet-4-6 Released: Sep 2026 Score: 53.4% 95% CI: [50.6%, 56.3%] Date source: lmarena-first-seengemini-3.1-pro-preview Released: Sep 2026 Score: 80.2% 95% CI: [77.6%, 82.8%] Date source: lmarena-first-seengpt-5.3-codex Released: Oct 2026 Score: 78.4% 95% CI: [76.2%, 80.6%] Date source: lmarena-first-seengpt-5.1-codex-max Released: Oct 2026 Score: 60.4% 95% CI: [57.8%, 63.1%] Date source: lmarena-first-seengpt-5.1-codex-mini Released: Oct 2026 Score: 61.6% 95% CI: [59.7%, 63.5%] Date source: lmarena-first-seengpt-5.2-codex Released: Oct 2026 Score: 66.5% 95% CI: [63.5%, 69.6%] Date source: lmarena-first-seen
Model at its release dateRunning best score (frontier)Score confidence interval

Read this as a frontier chart, not a per-model trajectory. A fixed model's score on a fixed benchmark does not change over time — Claude 3.5 Sonnet's GPQA number today is the same one Anthropic reported at launch. The line rises because better models keep arriving, not because any specific model got better. Seeing one model's score change over time (as its evaluation is re-run with different scaffolds, for example) needs a different kind of data: daily snapshots of each board, which we will chart once several weeks of them have accumulated.

25 models have no known release date and are not plotted.

Benchmarks · frontier

Frontier milestones

Every time a ceiling moved: who, which benchmark, by how much. Tap a sparkline to pick a benchmark — the chart above follows it; tap an organisation to filter by lab. Each event is the diff of the running best the chart draws.

8 of 114 frontier events ·

  1. Sep 202679.8%

    claude-opus-4-6 Anthropic sets Terminal-Bench

    +14.9 pp
  2. Sep 202684.7%

    gpt-5.5 OpenAI sets Terminal-Bench

    +4.9 pp
  3. Dec 202564.9%

    gpt-5.2-2025-12-11 OpenAI sets Terminal-Bench

    +1.8 pp
  4. Nov 202563.1%

    claude-opus-4-5-20251101 Anthropic sets Terminal-Bench

    +13.5 pp
  5. Aug 202549.6%

    gpt-5-2025-08-07 OpenAI sets Terminal-Bench

    +11.6 pp
  6. Aug 202538.0%

    claude-opus-4-1-20250805 Anthropic sets Terminal-Bench

    +5.4 pp
  7. Jun 202517.1%

    gemini-2.5-flash Google DeepMind sets Terminal-Bench

    first score
  8. Jun 202532.6%

    gemini-2.5-pro Google DeepMind sets Terminal-Bench

    +15.6 pp