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Capability frontier over time

Each Epoch benchmark, plotted on the release date of every model that's been scored on it. As newer models arrive the ceiling of what's been achieved keeps rising — a real trend, distinct from and often mistaken for individual models improving over time.

Humanity's Last Exam — models on arrival

One point per model at its release date. The line traces the best-known score at each moment.

0%25%50%75%100%2024202520262027Model release dateScore (%)gpt-4o-2024-11-20 Released: May 2024 Score: 2.7% 95% CI: [2.1%, 3.4%] Date source: curatedclaude-3-5-sonnet-20241022 Released: Jun 2024 Score: 4.1% 95% CI: [3.3%, 4.9%] Date source: curatedgemini-1.5-pro-002 Released: Sep 2024 Score: 4.6% 95% CI: [3.8%, 5.4%] Date source: curatedo1-pro-2025-03-19 Released: Dec 2024 Score: 8.1% 95% CI: [7.0%, 9.2%] Date source: curatedo1-2024-12-17 Released: Dec 2024 Score: 8.0% 95% CI: [6.9%, 9.0%] Date source: curatedclaude-3-7-sonnet-20250219 Released: Feb 2025 Score: 8.0% 95% CI: [7.0%, 9.1%] Date source: curatedgpt-4.5-preview-2025-02-27 Released: Feb 2025 Score: 5.4% 95% CI: [4.6%, 6.3%] Date source: curatedLlama-4-Maverick-17B-128E-Instruct Released: Apr 2025 Score: 5.7% 95% CI: [4.8%, 6.6%] Date source: curatedgpt-4.1-2025-04-14 Released: Apr 2025 Score: 5.4% 95% CI: [4.5%, 6.3%] Date source: curatedo4-mini-2025-04-16 Released: Apr 2025 Score: 18.1% 95% CI: [16.6%, 19.6%] Date source: curatedo3-2025-04-16 Released: Apr 2025 Score: 20.3% 95% CI: [18.7%, 21.9%] Date source: curatedmistral-medium-2505 Released: May 2025 Score: 4.5% 95% CI: [3.7%, 5.3%] Date source: name-suffixgemini-2.5-pro-preview-05-06 Released: May 2025 Score: 17.8% 95% CI: [16.3%, 19.3%] Date source: curatedclaude-opus-4-20250514 Released: May 2025 Score: 10.7% 95% CI: [9.5%, 11.9%] Date source: curatedclaude-sonnet-4-20250514 Released: May 2025 Score: 7.8% 95% CI: [6.7%, 8.8%] Date source: curatedgemini-2.5-pro-preview-06-05 Released: Jun 2025 Score: 21.6% 95% CI: [20.0%, 23.3%] Date source: curatedglm-4.5 Released: Jul 2025 Score: 8.3% 95% CI: [7.2%, 9.4%] Date source: curatedGLM-4.5-Air Released: Jul 2025 Score: 8.1% 95% CI: [7.0%, 9.2%] Date source: curatedclaude-opus-4-1-20250805 Released: Aug 2025 Score: 11.5% 95% CI: [10.3%, 12.8%] Date source: curatedgpt-5-mini-2025-08-07 Released: Aug 2025 Score: 19.4% 95% CI: [17.9%, 21.0%] Date source: curatedgpt-5-2025-08-07 Released: Aug 2025 Score: 25.3% 95% CI: [23.6%, 27.0%] Date source: curatedgpt-5claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929 Released: Sep 2025 Score: 13.7% 95% CI: [12.4%, 15.1%] Date source: curatedgpt-5-pro-2025-10-06 Released: Oct 2025 Score: 31.6% 95% CI: [29.8%, 33.5%] Date source: curatedgpt-5-proclaude-opus-4-5-20251101 Released: Nov 2025 Score: 25.2% 95% CI: [23.5%, 26.9%] Date source: name-suffixgpt-5.1-2025-11-13 Released: Nov 2025 Score: 23.7% 95% CI: [22.0%, 25.4%] Date source: name-suffixgpt-5.2-2025-12-11 Released: Dec 2025 Score: 27.8% 95% CI: [26.0%, 29.6%] Date source: name-suffixkimi-k2.5 Released: Jan 2026 Score: 24.4% 95% CI: [22.6%, 26.2%] Date source: huggingface-createdgpt-5.4-pro-2026-03-05 Released: Mar 2026 Score: 44.3% 95% CI: [42.4%, 46.3%] Date source: name-suffixgpt-5.4-proclaude-opus-4-7 Released: Sep 2026 Score: 36.2% 95% CI: [34.3%, 38.1%] Date source: lmarena-first-seenclaude-fable-5-1 Released: Sep 2026 Score: 46.5% 95% CI: [44.5%, 48.5%] Date source: lmarena-first-seenclaude-fable-5-1gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 Released: Sep 2026 Score: 36.2% 95% CI: [34.4%, 38.1%] Date source: lmarena-first-seengpt-6-astra Released: Sep 2026 Score: 54.8% 95% CI: [52.9%, 56.7%] Date source: lmarena-first-seengpt-6-astraclaude-opus-4-6 Released: Sep 2026 Score: 34.4% 95% CI: [32.6%, 36.3%] Date source: lmarena-first-seenmuse-spark Released: Sep 2026 Score: 40.6% 95% CI: [38.6%, 42.5%] Date source: lmarena-first-seengemini-3.1-pro-preview Released: Sep 2026 Score: 46.4% 95% CI: [44.5%, 48.4%] Date source: lmarena-first-seenclaude-sonnet-5-5 Released: Oct 2026 Score: 46.1% 95% CI: [44.2%, 48.1%] Date source: lmarena-first-seengemini-3.8-flash Released: Oct 2026 Score: 44.5% 95% CI: [42.6%, 46.5%] Date source: lmarena-first-seenclaude-haiku-5-5 Released: Oct 2026 Score: 30.1% 95% CI: [28.3%, 31.9%] Date source: lmarena-first-seen
Model at its release dateRunning best score (frontier)Score confidence interval

Read this as a frontier chart, not a per-model trajectory. A fixed model's score on a fixed benchmark does not change over time — Claude 3.5 Sonnet's GPQA number today is the same one Anthropic reported at launch. The line rises because better models keep arriving, not because any specific model got better. Seeing one model's score change over time (as its evaluation is re-run with different scaffolds, for example) needs a different kind of data: daily snapshots of each board, which we will chart once several weeks of them have accumulated.

8 models have no known release date and are not plotted.

Benchmarks · frontier

Frontier milestones

Every time a ceiling moved: who, which benchmark, by how much. Tap a sparkline to pick a benchmark — the chart above follows it; tap an organisation to filter by lab. Each event is the diff of the running best the chart draws.

12 of 115 frontier events ·

  1. Sep 202646.5%

    claude-fable-5-1 Anthropic sets Humanity's Last Exam

    +2.2 pp
  2. Sep 202654.8%

    gpt-6-astra OpenAI sets Humanity's Last Exam

    +8.3 pp
  3. Mar 202644.3%

    gpt-5.4-pro-2026-03-05 OpenAI sets Humanity's Last Exam

    +12.7 pp
  4. Oct 202531.6%

    gpt-5-pro-2025-10-06 OpenAI sets Humanity's Last Exam

    +6.3 pp
  5. Aug 202525.3%

    gpt-5-2025-08-07 OpenAI sets Humanity's Last Exam

    +3.7 pp
  6. Jun 202521.6%

    gemini-2.5-pro-preview-06-05 Google DeepMind sets Humanity's Last Exam

    +1.3 pp
  7. Apr 202518.1%

    o4-mini-2025-04-16 OpenAI sets Humanity's Last Exam

    +10.0 pp
  8. Apr 202520.3%

    o3-2025-04-16 OpenAI sets Humanity's Last Exam

    +2.2 pp
  9. Dec 20248.1%

    o1-pro-2025-03-19 OpenAI sets Humanity's Last Exam

    +3.5 pp
  10. Sep 20244.6%

    gemini-1.5-pro-002 Google DeepMind sets Humanity's Last Exam

    +0.5 pp
  11. Jun 20244.1%

    claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022 Anthropic sets Humanity's Last Exam

    +1.4 pp
  12. May 20242.7%

    gpt-4o-2024-11-20 OpenAI sets Humanity's Last Exam

    first score