Accounting for Purchased Artificial Intelligence Inference in Corporate Greenhouse Gas Inventories: A Token-Based Method

arXiv:2606.10660v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Purchased artificial intelligence (AI) inference belongs in Scope 3 Category 1 of a corporate greenhouse gas inventory, yet practice omits it or applies a spend-based factor that gives 1.7 to 12.3 times the physical estimate and cannot tell one model or region from another. This paper sets out a token-based method and open dataset: a cradle-to-gate boundary, four tiers of activity data, an effective-token basis, a four-term factor (serving electricity, embodied hardware, data-centre construction, disclosed final training runs) and a rule resolving any model identifier and region to a factor. Inference footprints span twelve times between model classes and nine between regions. The mid-class factor, 0.039 kg of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) per million billed tokens at the world-average grid, is the low end of a stated structural range: a less efficient serving configuration raises it 2.8 times, and replacing the training term with all model development, on its own boundary, gives 1.5 to 2.9 times it. Input bands alone give -18% to +29%. Published per-query energy estimates that can describe a mid-class model are 2.4 to 7.2 times the mid-class energy, above its structural range in four of five rows; those that can describe a frontier-class model bracket it at 0.7 to 1.6 times. Worked examples give 8.5 kg CO2e a year for a 200-person firm, and 2.1 tonnes for fifty developers using agentic coding tools on a mid-class model or 8.3 tonnes on a frontier-class one. The contribution is a traceable figure; accuracy against metered energy is untested.

Abstract:Purchased artificial intelligence (AI) inference belongs in Scope 3 Category 1 of a corporate greenhouse gas inventory, yet practice omits it or applies a spend-based factor that gives 1.7 to 12.3 times the physical estimate and cannot tell one model or region from another. This paper sets out a token-based method and open dataset: a cradle-to-gate boundary, four tiers of activity data, an effective-token basis, a four-term factor (serving electricity, embodied hardware, data-centre construction, disclosed final training runs) and a rule resolving any model identifier and region to a factor. Inference footprints span twelve times between model classes and nine between regions. The mid-class factor, 0.039 kg of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) per million billed tokens at the world-average grid, is the low end of a stated structural range: a less efficient serving configuration raises it 2.8 times, and replacing the training term with all model development, on its own boundary, gives 1.5 to 2.9 times it. Input bands alone give -18% to +29%. Published per-query energy estimates that can describe a mid-class model are 2.4 to 7.2 times the mid-class energy, above its structural range in four of five rows; those that can describe a frontier-class model bracket it at 0.7 to 1.6 times. Worked examples give 8.5 kg CO2e a year for a 200-person firm, and 2.1 tonnes for fifty developers using agentic coding tools on a mid-class model or 8.3 tonnes on a frontier-class one. The contribution is a traceable figure; accuracy against metered energy is untested.

v3: second journal revision, adding the practical reading of the development line, of class-based estimates and of the missing validation against metered energy; dataset citation name corrected. Dataset v3.0.0: this https URL. 125 pages, 11 figures, 38 tables with supplement. Revised version submitted to Sustainable Production and Consumption

Computers and Society (cs.CY); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)

arXiv:2606.10660 [cs.CY]

(or arXiv:2606.10660v3 [cs.CY] for this version)

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Accounting for Purchased Artificial Intelligence Inference in Corporate Greenhouse Gas Inventories: A Token-Based Method

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