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The article analyzes historical economic parallels between current AI capital expenditure surges and past speculative bubbles, arguing that widespread productivity gains will likely require decades to materialize despite immediate market enthusiasm. It highlights the extreme concentration of U.S. economic growth in a few mega-cap tech stocks and infrastructure investments, framing the current boom as a high-stakes wager on future returns rather than an immediate efficiency driver.
The U.S. market has never been more focused on one single bet—but AI’s payoff will likely take decades
Five decades of digital innovation delivered adoption without productivity. Ming Lu argues AI's payoff will follow the same slow path.
Americans have placed an unprecedented bet on the transformative power of artificial intelligence. The past 50 years of economic history suggests it won’t pay off, at least not on a timetable the market expects. Not since the Gilded Age—when, in 1885, railroad stocks accounted for more than 80% of active trading on the New York Stock Exchange—has the U.S. economy wagered so much on a single theme. When that bubble burst in the Panic of 1893, a third of railroads went bust, more than 500 banks failed, and the economy plunged into a four-year depression. Today’s frantic AI buildout may…
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