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Goldman Sachs analysis suggests that while AI will eventually displace roughly 9% of workers, companies are strategically delaying these layoffs until economic downturns to minimize immediate friction costs. This cyclical pattern implies that the full impact of automation on employment may not be felt until a recession triggers widespread restructuring and hiring freezes. Consequently, current market calm regarding AI job losses could mask significant labor displacement risks poised to materialize during the next economic slowdown.
AI could displace one in 11 workers, Goldman says, but the layoffs are likely waiting for a recession
Goldman’s Joseph Briggs finds companies have historically saved automation layoffs for downturns, and he’s updating his projection of the AI jobs impact.
The AI layoff panic that peaked this spring has gone quiet. Goldman Sachs thinks the layoffs are waiting for a recession. “Concerns of imminent AI-related labor displacement have cooled in recent months after hitting a fever pitch this spring,” Goldman economist Joseph Briggs wrote in a note published Thursday. Then he laid out what may be coming. Under the bank’s forecast that AI eventually lifts productivity by 15% in the U.S. and other developed economies, he found that up to 9% of workers could be “displaced during the AI transition,” with slower hiring weighing on employment by another 3%. That’s roughly one in 11 workers. The bigger finding is about timing. Briggs went back through decades of data on how technology has replaced workers and found that “automation-related labor disruption is limited when…
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