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This research exposes critical vulnerabilities in Maximum Likelihood Estimation-based ranking systems, demonstrating how strategic data perturbations can drastically alter collective decision outcomes like election results. By formulating manipulation as a combinatorial optimization problem, the authors reveal a sharp phase-transition where minimal adversarial effort yields significant global shifts in rankings. These findings underscore an urgent need for robust aggregation methods to secure AI-driven preference learning systems against targeted attacks.
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Ranking Abuse via Strategic Pairwise Data Perturbations

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arXiv:2604.17805v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Pairwise ranking systems based on Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), such as the Bradley-Terry model, are widely used to aggregate preferences from pairwise comparisons. However, their robustness under strategic data manipulation remains insufficiently understood. In this paper, we study the vulnerability of MLE-based ranking systems to adversarial perturbations. We formulate the manipulation task as a constrained combinatorial optimization problem and propose an Adaptive Subset Selection Attack (ASSA) to efficiently identify high-impact perturbations. Experimental results on both synthetic data and real-world election datasets show that MLE-based rankings exhibit a sharp phase-transition behavior: beyond a small perturbation budget, a limited number of strategic voters can significantly alter the global ranking. In particular, our method consistently outperforms random and greedy baselines under constrained budgets. These findings reveal a fundamental sensitivity of MLE-based ranking mechanisms to structured perturbations and highlight the need for more robust aggregation methods in collective decision-making systems.

Abstract:Pairwise ranking systems based on Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), such as the Bradley-Terry model, are widely used to aggregate preferences from pairwise comparisons. However, their robustness under strategic data manipulation remains insufficiently understood. In this paper, we study the vulnerability of MLE-based ranking systems to adversarial perturbations. We formulate the manipulation task as a constrained combinatorial optimization problem and propose an Adaptive Subset Selection Attack (ASSA) to efficiently identify high-impact perturbations. Experimental results on both synthetic data and real-world election datasets show that MLE-based rankings exhibit a sharp phase-transition behavior: beyond a small perturbation budget, a limited number of strategic voters can significantly alter the global ranking. In particular, our method consistently outperforms random and greedy baselines under constrained budgets. These findings reveal a fundamental sensitivity of MLE-based ranking mechanisms to structured perturbations and highlight the need for more robust aggregation methods in collective decision-making systems.

Machine Learning (cs.LG); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI); Computer Science and Game Theory (cs.GT)

arXiv:2604.17805 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2604.17805v2 [cs.LG] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2604.17805 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite

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