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This research establishes theoretical convergence guarantees for success conditioning, a reinforcement learning technique used to optimize decision-making in stochastic environments. By proving convergence rates for both discounted and single-period Markov decision processes, the study clarifies the mathematical limits of this widely applied strategy. The findings provide essential insights for researchers developing more robust algorithms for complex AI systems.
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On the Convergence of Success Conditioning for Policy Optimization

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arXiv:2610.03642v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Success conditioning is a strategy for improving decision-making policies in stochastic environments; it updates a policy by increasing the probability of taking actions that yield successful outcomes. Success conditioning is common to many reinforcement learning applications, yet its limiting behavior and convergence rates are not well understood. In this work, we demonstrate that success conditioning converges to an optimal policy on a broad class of Markov decision processes (MDPs). We also derive convergence rates in some common settings. For discounted MDPs, we prove convergence within $\mathcal{O}(1/\varepsilon^p)$ iterations to an $\varepsilon$-optimal policy, where the exponent $p$ depends on problem data. For single-period MDPs, such a policy is obtained within $\mathcal{O}(\log(1/\varepsilon))$ iterations.

Abstract:Success conditioning is a strategy for improving decision-making policies in stochastic environments; it updates a policy by increasing the probability of taking actions that yield successful outcomes. Success conditioning is common to many reinforcement learning applications, yet its limiting behavior and convergence rates are not well understood. In this work, we demonstrate that success conditioning converges to an optimal policy on a broad class of Markov decision processes (MDPs). We also derive convergence rates in some common settings. For discounted MDPs, we prove convergence within $\mathcal{O}(1/\varepsilon^p)$ iterations to an $\varepsilon$-optimal policy, where the exponent $p$ depends on problem data. For single-period MDPs, such a policy is obtained within $\mathcal{O}(\log(1/\varepsilon))$ iterations.

Machine Learning (cs.LG); Optimization and Control (math.OC)

arXiv:2610.03642 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2610.03642v1 [cs.LG] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.03642 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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