Hybrid Semantic Context-Enhanced Ensemble Learning for Wind Power Ramp-Event Forecasting and Uncertainty-Aware Evaluation

Abstract:Wind power ramp events which are sudden, large swings in turbine output over short windows are difficult to estimate, and standard models often miss them. Hybrid forecasting approach is built which augments semantic context to ramp-event forecast. Rather than applying an extensive language model directly to predict turbine operating data, we have implemented a pipeline where turbine operating data is converted to simplified text, which is then converted to dense embeddings to be used as inputs for ensemble models incorporated with other features. Testing runs are performed at multiple intervals within the SDWPF dataset, including 10-minute, 30-minute, and 60- minute horizons, with ramp events constituting the highest change in future power output. We check robustness against autoregressive, LSTM, and GRU baselines plus several ensemble configurations, using Diebold-Mariano tests and bootstrap confidence intervals, and we vary the ramp threshold, compress the embeddings with PCA, and validate externally on Kaggle SCADA and NREL data with uncertainty-aware scoring. The semantic-context features produce negligible yet statistically significant gains over the baselines in multiple paired ensemble runs, most clearly at the 30- and 60-minute horizons where these gains hold across different ramp-threshold definitions, and PCA compression helps in some longer-horizon cases. The best context- augmented ensembles rank near the top overall, though the GRU model still posts the lowest ramp-event RMSE at 30 and 60 minutes. External tests confirm the error reduction generalizes across datasets, but the size of the gain depends on both model and dataset. Prediction intervals cover most test cases well but weaken during ramp events, pointing to a localized shift in the data distribution.

Machine Learning (cs.LG)

arXiv:2608.29024 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2608.29024v1 [cs.LG] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2608.29024 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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