Wired for Overconfidence: A Mechanistic Perspective on Inflated Verbalized Confidence in LLMs

Abstract:Large language models are often not just wrong, but \emph{confidently wrong}: when they produce factually incorrect answers, they tend to verbalize overly high confidence rather than signal uncertainty. Such verbalized overconfidence can mislead users and weaken confidence scores as a reliable uncertainty signal, yet its internal mechanisms remain poorly understood. We present a circuit-level mechanistic analysis of this inflated verbalized confidence in LLMs, organized around three axes: capturing verbalized confidence as a differentiable internal signal, identifying the circuits that causally inflate it, and leveraging these insights for targeted inference-time recalibration. Across two instruction-tuned LLMs on three datasets, we find that a compact set of MLP blocks and attention heads, concentrated in middle-to-late layers, consistently writes the confidence-inflation signal at the final token position. We further show that targeted inference-time interventions on these circuits substantially improve calibration. Together, our results suggest that verbalized overconfidence in LLMs is driven by identifiable internal circuits and can be mitigated through targeted intervention.

Computation and Language (cs.CL)

arXiv:2604.01457 [cs.CL]

(or arXiv:2604.01457v2 [cs.CL] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2604.01457 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite

arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website.

Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them.

Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs.