Using LLMs for Explainable, Data-Driven Insight Generation from Time Series

Abstract:Time series forecasts are widely used in decision-critical domains, where they are rarely consumed without accompanying explanations. Producing such explanations is usually a manual and costly process, and attempts to automate it using large language models often suffer from hallucination when applied to temporal data. We propose a domain-agnostic framework for grounded natural language explanation generation for time series forecasts, illustrated in Figure 1. The framework consists of three components: (i) extraction of structured explanatory factors from historical analyst-written explanations, (ii) evidence-conditioned explanation generation, and (iii) scalable evaluation for readability, logical consistency, and persuasiveness. The design explicitly constrains generation to verifiable evidence, reducing unsupported claims. We evaluate the framework on a financial forecasting case study involving the NASDAQ-100 index and a freight pricing case study using data from Vortexa. Results show that generated explanations approached analyst-written explanations in terms of readability, consistency and persuasiveness. These findings demonstrate that grounded explanation generation for time series forecasting can be achieved at scale without domain-specific fine-tuning.

Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)

arXiv:2607.18271 [cs.AI]

(or arXiv:2607.18271v1 [cs.AI] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2607.18271 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite

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