Understanding Perturbed Parameter Ensemble Sensitivities Using A Contrastive Learning Approach

Abstract:Perturbed parameter ensembles (PPEs) reveal how physics parameters affect climate simulations, but interpreting parameter sensitivities across multivariate, spatially structured outputs remains challenging, particularly when calibrating models against observations. We develop an explainable contrastive learning model that maps 5 monthly cloud and radiation fields into a shared representation space. We train the model on the fields of two 100-member Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) PPEs, spanning 34 parameters, that only differ in the warm rain microphysics scheme: KK2000, the default bulk microphysics scheme, and TAU-ML, a neural network emulator of a bin microphysics scheme. The learned representations separates two PPEs with over 94\% linear classification accuracy while preserving the seasonal variability and ensemble spread due to parameter perturbations. In the shared representation space, the representations of satellite observations occupy the same low-dimensional manifold as the PPEs but are displaced from them most strongly during boreal spring and autumn. TAU-ML PPE has a lower distance to observations compared to KK2000 in the representation space. Integrated Gradients attributions highlights the contributions in subtropical low-cloud regions, Northern and Southern Hemisphere storm track regions, and tropical convection regions to differences between PPEs and observations. Regional attributions correlate most strongly with parameters associated with cloud microphysics, boundary layer turbulence, and deep convection. These results demonstrate that explainable representations of climate fields can attribute model differences to specific variables, regions, seasons, and physical parameters.

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)

arXiv:2609.30420 [physics.ao-ph]

(or arXiv:2609.30420v1 [physics.ao-ph] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.30420 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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