Uncertainty-Aware Deep Learning for Genomics Applications: Insights from an Empirical Study

arXiv:2608.11054v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Deep learning models have emerged as the standard computational tool for a wide range of applications in genomics. Yet, uncertainty quantification (UQ) --- and more specifically, the reliability of different uncertainty estimates in this domain --- has received little systematic attention. This work presents an empirical analysis of UQ in deep learning models, focusing on genomics applications. In a series of experiments, we contrast Deep Ensembles, Bayesian Neural Networks, and Monte Carlo-dropout methods. We assess their ability to quantify uncertainty in different scenarios, accounting for common dataset characteristics in two genomic application areas and modalities: sequence-to-activity models and single-cell expression analysis. Our systematic comparison framework provides guidelines for the applicability and reliability of UQ methods in genomics, highlighting their strengths and limitations in different scenarios. Our results indicate that Bayesian Neural Networks give the most consistent and directionally specific uncertainty response to class imbalance and out-of-distribution data in the tested settings, and mark the corrupted classes under label noise, at a higher computational and tuning cost. MC-dropout matches them on the sequence data, but is uncertain about every cell on the single-cell data, and deep ensembles respond less specifically. Moreover, we show how uncertainty scores can be used to select high-quality predictions in protein--RNA interactions.