TStruct: Learning Shared Temporal Structures for Long-Term Time-Series Forecasting

Abstract:Long-term time series forecasting requires temporal dependency modeling that remains stable and generalizable under temporal distribution shifts. However, real-world time series are often noisy and non-stationary, making deep learning models prone to fitting incidental temporal interactions in the training data. A key question is whether there exist temporal relationship structures that recur across different temporal positions and variables. We analyze temporal relationship matrices on commonly used time series datasets and find that samples from different temporal positions and different variables exhibit shared dominant temporal relationship structures. This indicates that temporal relationship structures contain patterns that recur stably across samples and variables. To learn such shared structures, we propose \textbf{T}emporal \textbf{Struct}ure Network (\textbf{TStruct}), a simple yet effective network for directly learning shared and generalizable temporal dependencies. Specifically, TStruct directly parameterizes a set of shared temporal dependency matrices and generates normalized combination weights using dynamic sample information and static variable priors. These weights represent a soft allocation of each sample-variable pair over shared temporal dependency structures, enabling the model to generate adaptive temporal dependency matrices under shared structural constraints, rather than fitting incidental interactions in a fully unconstrained manner. Notably, this simple structure-aware design consistently outperforms several strong baselines across all datasets, achieving superior accuracy while maintaining high computational efficiency.

Machine Learning (cs.LG); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)

arXiv:2610.17864 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2610.17864v1 [cs.LG] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.17864 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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