Transfer Calibrated Prediction Powered Inference

Abstract:Prediction-powered inference (PPI) and its power-tuned extension (PPI++) improve confidence intervals by combining a small gold-standard labeled sample with a large AI model's predictions. Its efficiency gain relies on low residual variance, which may not hold if the predictor is pre-trained on a different source domain. We propose Transfer Calibrated Prediction-Powered Inference (TC-PPI), adapting the source-domain predictor to the target domain using gold-standard samples through cross-fitting. This approach supports various adaptation methods, such as sparse linear calibration, LoRA, and fine-tuning. Our jointly tuned cross-fit estimator, Joint-TC-Cross-PPI++, maintains unbiasedness and is simultaneously at least as efficient as classical inference, PPI, and PPI++, thereby protecting against negative transfer. We provide high-dimensional MSE bounds for calibration and show empirical improvements over baseline methods across various real-world applications.

Machine Learning (cs.LG)

arXiv:2609.34156 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2609.34156v1 [cs.LG] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.34156 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website.

Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them.

Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs.