Trajectory-Aware Retrieval Agents for Temporal Decision- Making

Abstract:We study the problem of decision-making from long-form, temporally structured text using large language model (LLM) agents. Standard retrievalaugmented generation (RAG) pipelines fragment chronological context into isolated snippets, discarding the temporal structure that is often critical for correct downstream decisions. We introduce TLM (Trajectory Language Model), a closed-loop agentic framework that iteratively refines the evidence set using SHAP-guided feedback. The key technical contribution is the latent growth curve model (LGCM) over retrieved chunk embeddings, which provides an interpretable mechanism for detecting trajectory trends, turning points, and information gaps. We show that, under a scorer-calibration assumption (which holds approximately in practice), the iterative refinement procedure is monotonically non-decreasing in the probability assigned to the correct label. Empirically, TLM is evaluated on three temporally grounded decision tasks: medical question answering, earnings call surprise prediction, and overnight stock gap prediction. TLM substantially outperforms both zero-shot LLM baselines and standard retrieval-augmented approaches on the medical task, and yields consistent, economically meaningful gains on the two financial tasks.

Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)

arXiv:2607.21625 [cs.AI]

(or arXiv:2607.21625v1 [cs.AI] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2607.21625 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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