Tianmu-TC: Physics-constraints Generative Artificial Intelligence for Global Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

Abstract:Tropical cyclones (TCs) pose severe risks from strong winds and heavy rainfall. However, forecasting their track and intensity remains challenging due to chaotic atmosphere and the rapid amplification of initial condition errors, leading to growing forecast uncertainty. While numerical weather prediction (NWP) and deep learning models have made progress, they remain computationally demanding and often fail under complex meteorological scenarios. Here, we present Tianmu-TC, a physics-constraints generative framework for global TC forecasting. Trained on Western North Pacific data, Tianmu-TC leverages physics-constraints to generate controllable outputs with reduced uncertainty thus improving forecast reliability. Experiments show Tianmu-TC outperforms deterministic and ensemble meteorological artificial intelligence models and authoritative NWP systems such as ECMWF in global ocean basins, with significantly lower computational cost. We further show Tianmu-TC performs well in challenging scenarios such as data sparsity, anomaly tracks, rapid intensification and weakening. These findings suggest physics-constraints generative AI offers a promising approach for reliable, efficient global TC forecasting.

Machine Learning (cs.LG)

arXiv:2608.18500 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2608.18500v1 [cs.LG] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2608.18500 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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