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SpaceX's IPO valuation appears to function largely as a speculative call option on its high-risk orbital data center ambitions rather than current cash flows. While the company's engineering feats in reusable rockets and satellite deployment are impressive, analysts suggest the stock price significantly overvalues these assets compared to more conservative financial models. Investors are essentially betting on the successful integration of a space monopoly with a far riskier AI and chip manufacturing venture.

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The three hard-tech moonshots fueling SpaceX’s unbelievable IPO

TechCrunchJune 10, 20267 min read

Most of the value in SpaceX's IPO is effectively a call option on the company's ambitious space data center plans.

SpaceX is coming to market on Friday, and investors can barely contain their excitement. The $75 billion stock offering is reportedly deeply over-subscribed, with some institutional investors ponying up for $10 billion blocks of Elon Musk’s empire. There are lots of reasons to be skeptical of the investment — big IPOs tend to sink, the company is losing money, and Musk’s erratic online behavior would be terrifying coming from any other tech CEO — but it doesn’t seem to be slowing anyone down. Tech investors have learned to never bet against Elon, whatever the business logic indicates. But a dispassionate look at SpaceX’s financial plans can still tell us a lot about what they’re betting on: A business centered around orbital data centers that emerged in the last…

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