The Statistical Cost of Causal Discovery with Feedback

Abstract:What determines the unavoidable sample cost of learning cyclic causal structure? For cyclic linear non-Gaussian models, we study exact condensation recovery from observational data: identifying the strongly connected component (SCC) partition and all edges between components. We establish the first information-theoretic lower bounds on sample complexity for this target. For $p$ variables, maximum SCC size $s_{\max}$, and maximum external-parent count $d_B$, any estimator requires order $s_{\max}\log(ep/s_{\max})+d_B\log(ep/d_B)$ samples in the worst case over a regular model class. These bounds distinguish the costs of SCC membership and external-parent selection. Under principal invertibility and without correlation faithfulness, we establish a population block-exogeneity principle that identifies unknown root SCCs through residual independence and inclusion minimality. A sparse-adjustment characterization shows that small adjustment sets suffice to identify SCCs and their direct external parents, without regressing on all previously recovered variables. These characterizations yield BlockExo, which attains a structurally matching sample bound without knowing $s_{\max}$ or $d_B$ under suitable conditions. Simulations support the structural dependence of our sample bound and demonstrate BlockExo's sample-efficient recovery in comparisons with other methods for cyclic causal discovery.

Machine Learning (stat.ML); Machine Learning (cs.LG)

arXiv:2609.34050 [stat.ML]

(or arXiv:2609.34050v1 [stat.ML] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.34050 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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