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This paper argues that the era of unchecked AI growth is ending due to fundamental constraints in data availability, computational costs, and synthetic data limitations. It further analyzes how these bottlenecks create instability within the development ecosystem while simultaneously triggering broader societal disruptions and geopolitical tensions regarding future intelligent systems. The analysis shifts focus from pure scaling paradigms to the complex interplay of economic valuation, governance challenges, and the realistic trajectory toward superintelligence.
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The End of AI Exponentiation: Fluttering Inside and Outside AI Bubble

arXiv2 min read

arXiv:2609.05894v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The exponentiation of Artificial intelligence (AI) in the recent past has entered a transformative era that has been driven by the growth in large language models (LLMs), large-scale compute infrastructures, and autonomous reasoning systems. However, the rapid acceleration of AI has increasingly shown technological, societal, economic, ethical and infrastructural challenges associated with peak data limitations, rising computational demands, synthetic data recursion, valuation inflation, and societal instability. The traditional scaling paradigms that have powered the modern AI systems are gradually encountering friction in sustaining continuous exponential growth. This paper views ``the end of AI exponentiation,'' thus exploring how it flutters inside and outside the bubble, where instability emerges within the AI ecosystem through compute and data-center races, speculative investments, and the rat-race toward superintelligence, and outside the ecosystem through labor disruption, governance concerns, public uncertainty, and geopolitical acceleration surrounding future intelligent systems and infrastructures globally.

Abstract:The exponentiation of Artificial intelligence (AI) in the recent past has entered a transformative era that has been driven by the growth in large language models (LLMs), large-scale compute infrastructures, and autonomous reasoning systems. However, the rapid acceleration of AI has increasingly shown technological, societal, economic, ethical and infrastructural challenges associated with peak data limitations, rising computational demands, synthetic data recursion, valuation inflation, and societal instability. The traditional scaling paradigms that have powered the modern AI systems are gradually encountering friction in sustaining continuous exponential growth. This paper views ``the end of AI exponentiation,'' thus exploring how it flutters inside and outside the bubble, where instability emerges within the AI ecosystem through compute and data-center races, speculative investments, and the rat-race toward superintelligence, and outside the ecosystem through labor disruption, governance concerns, public uncertainty, and geopolitical acceleration surrounding future intelligent systems and infrastructures globally.

Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)

arXiv:2609.05894 [cs.AI]

(or arXiv:2609.05894v1 [cs.AI] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.05894 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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Full text under the publisher's open licence · 238 words

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