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This research introduces SATURN, a temporal graph neural network designed to predict adolescent crystallized intelligence using wearable actigraphy data. By dynamically pruning invalid edges and refining node embeddings with GATv2 layers, the model outperforms standard machine learning and sequential deep learning baselines while maintaining equitable performance across diverse sociodemographic groups. The study establishes a rigorous computational framework for digital cognitive phenotyping that complements traditional clinical assessments by identifying macro-level behavioral anomalies.
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Temporal Graph Learning of Wearable Actigraphy and Sleep Traces for Modelling Adolescent Crystallized Intelligence

arXiv2 min read

arXiv:2609.33428v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Wearable actigraphy offers a scalable, ecologically valid alternative to episodic clinical assessment. However, predicting continuous adolescent crystallized intelligence ($G_c$) from such traces remains challenging due to irregular device adherence and complex behavioral-environmental interactions. We address this using daily summary data derived from 21-day Fitbit records of 6,091 adolescents in the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study (Release 5.1). We propose SATURN, a Sleep-Activity Temporal Unified Regression Network. It represents participants as 21-node temporal graphs encoding daily behaviors and temporal adjacency. To prevent imputation artifacts, invalid-day edges are dynamically pruned during forward passes. Node embeddings are refined via residual GATv2 layers, aggregated through masked attention pooling, and fused with sociodemographic covariates. Under family-controlled, age-sex-BMI-stratified cross-validation, SATURN achieves $R^2 = 0.2783 \pm 0.0127$, consistently improving upon flattened machine learning (Gradient Boosting, $R^2 = 0.2372$) and sequential deep learning (BiLSTM, $R^2 = 0.2688$) baselines. Explainability analyses identify light activity, metabolic equivalents, and sleep duration as dominant predictors, while Monte Carlo dropout and subgroup analyses confirm equitable performance across sociodemographic strata. Ultimately, SATURN establishes a rigorous computational framework for digital cognitive phenotyping, offering a scalable pathway to complement traditional assessments by highlighting macro-level behavioral anomalies.

Abstract:Wearable actigraphy offers a scalable, ecologically valid alternative to episodic clinical assessment. However, predicting continuous adolescent crystallized intelligence ($G_c$) from such traces remains challenging due to irregular device adherence and complex behavioral-environmental interactions. We address this using daily summary data derived from 21-day Fitbit records of 6,091 adolescents in the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study (Release 5.1). We propose SATURN, a Sleep-Activity Temporal Unified Regression Network. It represents participants as 21-node temporal graphs encoding daily behaviors and temporal adjacency. To prevent imputation artifacts, invalid-day edges are dynamically pruned during forward passes. Node embeddings are refined via residual GATv2 layers, aggregated through masked attention pooling, and fused with sociodemographic covariates. Under family-controlled, age-sex-BMI-stratified cross-validation, SATURN achieves $R^2 = 0.2783 \pm 0.0127$, consistently improving upon flattened machine learning (Gradient Boosting, $R^2 = 0.2372$) and sequential deep learning (BiLSTM, $R^2 = 0.2688$) baselines. Explainability analyses identify light activity, metabolic equivalents, and sleep duration as dominant predictors, while Monte Carlo dropout and subgroup analyses confirm equitable performance across sociodemographic strata. Ultimately, SATURN establishes a rigorous computational framework for digital cognitive phenotyping, offering a scalable pathway to complement traditional assessments by highlighting macro-level behavioral anomalies.

11 pages, 3 figures. This work has been submitted to the IEEE Transactions on Computational Social Systems for possible publication

Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)

arXiv:2609.33428 [cs.AI]

(or arXiv:2609.33428v1 [cs.AI] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.33428 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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Full text under the publisher's open licence · 304 words

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