SPRINT: Stochastic Performative Prediction With Variance Reduction

arXiv:2509.17304v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Performative prediction (PP) is an algorithmic framework for optimizing machine learning (ML) models where the model's deployment affects the distribution of the data it is trained on. Compared to traditional ML with fixed data, designing algorithms in PP converging to a stable point -- known as a stationary performative stable (SPS) solution -- is more challenging than the counterpart in conventional ML tasks due to the model-induced distribution shifts. While considerable efforts have been made to find SPS solutions using methods such as repeated gradient descent (RGD) and greedy stochastic gradient descent (SGD-GD), most prior studies assumed a strongly convex loss until a recent work established $O(1/\sqrt{T})$ convergence of SGD-GD to SPS solutions under smooth, non-convex losses. However, this latest progress is still based on the restricted bounded variance assumption in stochastic gradient estimates and yields convergence bounds with a non-vanishing error neighborhood that scales with the variance. This limitation motivates us to improve convergence rates and reduce error in stochastic optimization for PP, particularly in non-convex settings. Thus, we propose a new algorithm called stochastic performative prediction with variance reduction (SPRINT) and establish its convergence to an SPS solution at a rate of $O(1/T)$. Notably, the resulting error neighborhood is independent of the variance of the stochastic gradients. Experiments on multiple real datasets with non-convex models demonstrate that SPRINT outperforms SGD-GD in both convergence rate and stability.

Abstract:Performative prediction (PP) is an algorithmic framework for optimizing machine learning (ML) models where the model's deployment affects the distribution of the data it is trained on. Compared to traditional ML with fixed data, designing algorithms in PP converging to a stable point -- known as a stationary performative stable (SPS) solution -- is more challenging than the counterpart in conventional ML tasks due to the model-induced distribution shifts. While considerable efforts have been made to find SPS solutions using methods such as repeated gradient descent (RGD) and greedy stochastic gradient descent (SGD-GD), most prior studies assumed a strongly convex loss until a recent work established $O(1/\sqrt{T})$ convergence of SGD-GD to SPS solutions under smooth, non-convex losses. However, this latest progress is still based on the restricted bounded variance assumption in stochastic gradient estimates and yields convergence bounds with a non-vanishing error neighborhood that scales with the variance. This limitation motivates us to improve convergence rates and reduce error in stochastic optimization for PP, particularly in non-convex settings. Thus, we propose a new algorithm called stochastic performative prediction with variance reduction (SPRINT) and establish its convergence to an SPS solution at a rate of $O(1/T)$. Notably, the resulting error neighborhood is independent of the variance of the stochastic gradients. Experiments on multiple real datasets with non-convex models demonstrate that SPRINT outperforms SGD-GD in both convergence rate and stability.

Machine Learning (cs.LG)

arXiv:2509.17304 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2509.17304v3 [cs.LG] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2509.17304 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite

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SPRINT: Stochastic Performative Prediction With Variance Reduction

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