aiqbench analysis
This research dissects how demographic identity is encoded within LLMs, revealing that the ability to read out group traits, accurately represent their geometry, and causally utilize them are three distinct properties. The study finds that a single attention head can faithfully map inter-group differences while remaining weak on race-based attributes, challenging the assumption that high fidelity implies causal utility. These findings clarify the limitations of using models to simulate survey populations and suggest that current architectures struggle to reliably capture specific demographic nuances despite appearing to do so.
Readable, Faithful, Used: Three Dissociable Properties of Demographic Identity in a Language Model
arXiv:2608.18768v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models are widely used to simulate survey respondents, yet their answers are homogeneous and unfaithful to real inter-group differences. We ask where demographic group identity lives inside an LLM, how faithfully its geometry mirrors real inter-group opinion structure, and whether it uses what it encodes. Using representational similarity analysis against Pew ground truth over 169 demographic cells, we score 1,089 read-out locations in Mistral-7B and intervene causally across six attribute types. Four results. (1) The standard last-token residual read-out understates the model: attention-head read-outs dominate it in five of six types, with selection-corrected fidelity up to rho=0.63 -- roughly 70% of the measurement-reliability ceiling -- surviving a lexical-similarity control. (2) A single head (L11 H16) is significantly faithful in all six types as a fixed location, while race-based types stay weak and prompt-fragile. Both phenomena replicate -- the analogous head significant in five of six types, weakest on the same race type -- across three checkpoints of a second model family, where ten billion training tokens barely move the map. (3) Causal use does not follow fidelity: the clearest causal pathway sits in one of the least faithful types (p=0.002, cluster-robust, fixed depth), the most faithful type shows no correction-surviving single-layer effect, and replacing the entire identity moves predictions by under 2% of their error. (4) A 128-dimensional probe of the single head lands 21-31% closer to survey truth than the model's own answers -- yet recovers almost none of the per-question group ordering, no better than the answers themselves. Readable, faithfully arranged, and causally used are three dissociable properties of the same model; treating them as one claim is what keeps the "can LLMs simulate populations" debate unresolved.
Abstract:Large language models are widely used to simulate survey respondents, yet their answers are homogeneous and unfaithful to real inter-group differences. We ask where demographic group identity lives inside an LLM, how faithfully its geometry mirrors real inter-group opinion structure, and whether it uses what it encodes. Using representational similarity analysis against Pew ground truth over 169 demographic cells, we score 1,089 read-out locations in Mistral-7B and intervene causally across six attribute types. Four results. (1) The standard last-token residual read-out understates the model: attention-head read-outs dominate it in five of six types, with selection-corrected fidelity up to rho=0.63 -- roughly 70% of the measurement-reliability ceiling -- surviving a lexical-similarity control. (2) A single head (L11 H16) is significantly faithful in all six types as a fixed location, while race-based types stay weak and prompt-fragile. Both phenomena replicate -- the analogous head significant in five of six types, weakest on the same race type -- across three checkpoints of a second model family, where ten billion training tokens barely move the map. (3) Causal use does not follow fidelity: the clearest causal pathway sits in one of the least faithful types (p=0.002, cluster-robust, fixed depth), the most faithful type shows no correction-surviving single-layer effect, and replacing the entire identity moves predictions by under 2% of their error. (4) A 128-dimensional probe of the single head lands 21-31% closer to survey truth than the model's own answers -- yet recovers almost none of the per-question group ordering, no better than the answers themselves. Readable, faithfully arranged, and causally used are three dissociable properties of the same model; treating them as one claim is what keeps the "can LLMs simulate populations" debate unresolved.
Computation and Language (cs.CL)
arXiv:2608.18768 [cs.CL]
(or arXiv:2608.18768v1 [cs.CL] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2608.18768 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
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