aiqbench analysis
RATL introduces a novel framework that treats historical forecast residuals as retrievable memory to correct base model outputs in multivariate time-series tasks. By freezing the primary forecaster and using a set-aware router to inject relevant past error trajectories, this method enhances prediction robustness without retraining the core architecture. The approach effectively adapts retrieval-augmented concepts from generative models to continuous-output regression, offering a practical upgrade for existing forecasting pipelines.
RATL: Learning from Retrieved Residuals for Robust Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting
arXiv:2609.03937v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) complements parametric models with retrieved external evidence. The same idea is attractive for continuous-output regression, but directly reusing retrieved target values is often not robust when samples differ in output level, numerical scale, or local dynamics. Moreover, conventional forecasting pipelines generally use residuals for model optimization and error diagnosis, but do not retain individual historical residual examples as memory that can be accessed at inference time.For multivariate time-series forecasting, we propose RATL, a plug-in residual-retrieval and feedback-correction method. RATL freezes a base forecaster to construct retrieval keys and turns its historical forecast residuals into a train-only memory specific to that base model. At inference time, RATL retrieves residual trajectories from similar historical contexts subject to causal availability constraints, then uses a set-aware router operating over forecast blocks and variables to select and combine these trajectories. Experiments show that historical residuals matched to the current context contain reusable forecasting information and that RATL improves frozen base forecasters in most experimental settings. Ablations further show that learned routing strengthens raw residual feedback, while validation-based correction-strength selection limits residual over-injection.On real-world benchmarks, we use iTransformer as the primary frozen base forecaster, compare against multiple strong forecasting baselines, and test transferability across backbones. The results show that RATL can further improve base-forecaster performance in most settings.Overall, RATL shifts the retrieved object from historical target values to base-model-specific historical forecast errors, providing a plug-in, residual-memory-based paradigm for learned feedback correction in continuous-output forecasting.
Abstract:Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) complements parametric models with retrieved external evidence. The same idea is attractive for continuous-output regression, but directly reusing retrieved target values is often not robust when samples differ in output level, numerical scale, or local dynamics. Moreover, conventional forecasting pipelines generally use residuals for model optimization and error diagnosis, but do not retain individual historical residual examples as memory that can be accessed at inference this http URL multivariate time-series forecasting, we propose RATL, a plug-in residual-retrieval and feedback-correction method. RATL freezes a base forecaster to construct retrieval keys and turns its historical forecast residuals into a train-only memory specific to that base model. At inference time, RATL retrieves residual trajectories from similar historical contexts subject to causal availability constraints, then uses a set-aware router operating over forecast blocks and variables to select and combine these trajectories. Experiments show that historical residuals matched to the current context contain reusable forecasting information and that RATL improves frozen base forecasters in most experimental settings. Ablations further show that learned routing strengthens raw residual feedback, while validation-based correction-strength selection limits residual this http URL real-world benchmarks, we use iTransformer as the primary frozen base forecaster, compare against multiple strong forecasting baselines, and test transferability across backbones. The results show that RATL can further improve base-forecaster performance in most this http URL, RATL shifts the retrieved object from historical target values to base-model-specific historical forecast errors, providing a plug-in, residual-memory-based paradigm for learned feedback correction in continuous-output forecasting.
Machine Learning (cs.LG); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)
arXiv:2609.03937 [cs.LG]
(or arXiv:2609.03937v1 [cs.LG] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.03937 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
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