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This research establishes a theoretical limit for reconstructing model states from saved checkpoints, proving that no standard gradient-descent history can achieve better than $O(h^3)$ endpoint error. The proposed Quadratic-Accurate Merging (QAM) algorithm matches this optimal bound by defining unique profile-dependent merge coefficients. While empirical results on public LLM trajectories show mixed performance depending on window length, the work provides a rigorous mathematical foundation for understanding the reconstruction limits of training histories.
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QAM: Quadratic-Accurate Checkpoint Merging via Sequential Consistency

arXiv3 min read

arXiv:2609.35168v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Saved checkpoints record states along a training trajectory, but generally do not determine the updates at states that would be visited under a different schedule. We study how accurately these checkpoints can reconstruct the endpoint of a sequential reference with prescribed update strengths. Under a common local transition model, two checkpoint-index moment conditions characterize all convex merges that agree with this reference through second order. We then prove an information limit that for nondegenerate profiles, no algorithm using only a fixed-length gradient-descent (GD) history with step size $h$ can achieve $o(h^3)$ endpoint error uniformly over a fixed class of smooth, strongly convex losses. The lower bound follows from two losses with identical GD checkpoint histories but sequential reference endpoints separated by $\Omega(h^3)$. \textbf{Quadratic-Accurate Merging} (QAM) achieves a matching uniform $O(h^3)$ endpoint error bound. Its explicit coefficients also define the unique profile-dependent merge that exactly matches the sequential GD reference across all fixed quadratic objectives. Across two public Adam checkpoint trajectories (SmolLM3-3B and OpenEuroLLM-Prelude-9B), three windows and three profiles per model, and 15 tasks, QAM shows mixed results for short windows and broader advantages over \textbf{Warmup-Stable and Merge} (WSM) for longer windows. Matched-moment GSM8K diagnostics further show that local consistency alone does not fully determine downstream scores. These results characterize the reconstruction limits of saved histories, provide a coefficient rule that attains the optimal rate, and assess its practical utility.

Abstract:Saved checkpoints record states along a training trajectory, but generally do not determine the updates at states that would be visited under a different schedule. We study how accurately these checkpoints can reconstruct the endpoint of a sequential reference with prescribed update strengths. Under a common local transition model, two checkpoint-index moment conditions characterize all convex merges that agree with this reference through second order. We then prove an information limit that for nondegenerate profiles, no algorithm using only a fixed-length gradient-descent (GD) history with step size $h$ can achieve $o(h^3)$ endpoint error uniformly over a fixed class of smooth, strongly convex losses. The lower bound follows from two losses with identical GD checkpoint histories but sequential reference endpoints separated by $\Omega(h^3)$. \textbf{Quadratic-Accurate Merging} (QAM) achieves a matching uniform $O(h^3)$ endpoint error bound. Its explicit coefficients also define the unique profile-dependent merge that exactly matches the sequential GD reference across all fixed quadratic objectives. Across two public Adam checkpoint trajectories (SmolLM3-3B and OpenEuroLLM-Prelude-9B), three windows and three profiles per model, and 15 tasks, QAM shows mixed results for short windows and broader advantages over \textbf{Warmup-Stable and Merge} (WSM) for longer windows. Matched-moment GSM8K diagnostics further show that local consistency alone does not fully determine downstream scores. These results characterize the reconstruction limits of saved histories, provide a coefficient rule that attains the optimal rate, and assess its practical utility.

Machine Learning (cs.LG); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)

arXiv:2609.35168 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2609.35168v1 [cs.LG] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.35168 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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Full text under the publisher's open licence · 326 words

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