Prediction is Better than Detection: Traffic Congestion Control using Drones

Abstract:A central question in deploying teams of mobile robots for persistent monitoring is how task performance scales with fleet size, and whether this scaling holds once sensing drives downstream action rather than mere observation. We study this question for a team of drones performing traffic-jam detection and prediction in a simulated road network, whose reports drive an adaptive traffic-signal controller in closed loop. We build a multi-agent simulation, with vehicles following Nagel-Schreckenberg cellular-automaton dynamics and drones patrolling junctions via a round-robin policy, and sweep fleet size, traffic level, and network size to evaluate detection rate, detection delay, and prediction rate. We show how performance plateaus for fleet size approximating the number of junctions being monitored, and offer a general fleet-provisioning rule for persistent-monitoring deployments. More significantly, adapting the signal on a predicted jam, rather than a detected one, roughly doubles the resulting reduction in jam duration, showing that the value of onboard prediction in a sensing-to-action pipeline can exceed the value of adding more robots. Prediction accuracy, not sensing coverage, is now the binding constraint on further improvement, pointing to onboard inference, not fleet size, as the more promising direction for future work.

Robotics (cs.RO); Multiagent Systems (cs.MA)

arXiv:2609.39637 [cs.RO]

(or arXiv:2609.39637v1 [cs.RO] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.39637 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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