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PopPert introduces a novel statistical framework using low-rank Gaussian Copulas to model population-level gene expression distributions, effectively solving the unpaired data problem inherent in single-cell RNA sequencing. By eliminating the need for cell-to-cell correspondence, this method significantly reduces noise sensitivity and improves the accuracy of predicting transcriptional responses to genetic and chemical perturbations. This advancement represents a meaningful step forward in machine learning applications for genomics and drug discovery pipelines.
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PopPert: Population-level Joint-Distribution Modeling for Single-Cell Perturbation Prediction

arXiv2 min read

arXiv:2609.01357v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predicting transcriptional responses to specific perturbations is critical for understanding cellular regulatory mechanisms and accelerating drug discovery. Single-cell RNA sequencing destroys each measured cell, yielding only unpaired populations of control and perturbed cells. However, existing methods typically model perturbation prediction at the single-cell level and assume cell-to-cell correspondence, which conflicts with the unpaired nature of the observed data. To address this challenge, we propose PopPert, a framework that explicitly parameterizes population-level joint gene expression distributions for collective transcriptional state modeling. Given a control population distribution and a perturbation condition, PopPert predicts perturbation-induced changes in distribution parameters, eliminating the need for cell-level correspondence and reducing sensitivity to single-cell noise. To effectively capture gene co-expression patterns, PopPert leverages a low-rank Gaussian Copula to model cross-gene statistical dependencies and construct the joint gene expression distribution, additionally allowing sampling of synthetic perturbed single-cell profiles. Across multiple single-cell benchmarks spanning both genetic and chemical perturbations, PopPert achieves superior overall performance in differential expression recovery, perturbation effect estimation, and population-level distribution matching. These results establish population-level joint distribution learning as an effective paradigm for predicting transcriptional responses from unpaired single-cell populations. Code for PopPert is publicly available at https://github.com/whd1125/PopPert.

Abstract:Predicting transcriptional responses to specific perturbations is critical for understanding cellular regulatory mechanisms and accelerating drug discovery. Single-cell RNA sequencing destroys each measured cell, yielding only unpaired populations of control and perturbed cells. However, existing methods typically model perturbation prediction at the single-cell level and assume cell-to-cell correspondence, which conflicts with the unpaired nature of the observed data. To address this challenge, we propose PopPert, a framework that explicitly parameterizes population-level joint gene expression distributions for collective transcriptional state modeling. Given a control population distribution and a perturbation condition, PopPert predicts perturbation-induced changes in distribution parameters, eliminating the need for cell-level correspondence and reducing sensitivity to single-cell noise. To effectively capture gene co-expression patterns, PopPert leverages a low-rank Gaussian Copula to model cross-gene statistical dependencies and construct the joint gene expression distribution, additionally allowing sampling of synthetic perturbed single-cell profiles. Across multiple single-cell benchmarks spanning both genetic and chemical perturbations, PopPert achieves superior overall performance in differential expression recovery, perturbation effect estimation, and population-level distribution matching. These results establish population-level joint distribution learning as an effective paradigm for predicting transcriptional responses from unpaired single-cell populations. Code for PopPert is publicly available at this https URL.

Genomics (q-bio.GN); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)

arXiv:2609.01357 [q-bio.GN]

(or arXiv:2609.01357v1 [q-bio.GN] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.01357 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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Full text under the publisher's open licence · 291 words

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