Outstrumental Variable Regression

arXiv:2611.00266v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Estimating the causal effect of a treatment $X$ on an outcome $Y$ from observational data in the presence of unobserved confounding requires additional structure or assumptions. Existing identification strategies such as instrumental variable regression exploit exogenous variation in only the treatment. We show that the causal effect can also be identified if the outcome mechanism varies across a finite set of environments, even if the treatment distribution is unchanged. Concretely, we introduce Outstrumental Variable Regression (OVR), which proceeds in three steps: (i) compute the conditional expectation of $Y$ given $X$ in each environment; (ii) form the vector of differences in these conditional expectations between all environments and a reference environment (we call this vector contrast); and (iii) regress $Y$ on $X$ while adjusting for the contrast and environment. We prove that this yields the true causal effect if the following two conditions hold: inclusion restriction, i.e., the contrast determines the conditional confounding bias; and positivity, i.e., the treatment varies sufficiently strongly after adjustment. We prove that a finite-sample version of OVR is consistent under regularity conditions and demonstrate the procedure's effectiveness on synthetic and real-world data.