aiqbench analysis
This research exposes a critical flaw in on-policy distillation where local token agreement often masks underlying trajectory failures, misleading models into imitating errors. The authors introduce an outcome-resolved diagnostic that decouples pointwise divergence from final correctness to better identify safe imitation versus harmful consensus. This work advances the theoretical understanding of training dynamics by highlighting the need for positional information or process labels to resolve these confounded supervision signals.
Outcome-Confounded Local Supervision in On-Policy Distillation
arXiv:2607.23731v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: On-policy distillation (OPD) trains a student on its own trajectories while a teacher supplies dense token-level likelihoods at student-visited prefixes. These likelihoods are often read locally: agreement appears safe to imitate, whereas disagreement appears to identify an error. We show that both readings are confounded by the outcome of the completed trajectory. We introduce an outcome-resolved diagnostic that crosses pointwise teacher-student divergence with final-answer correctness, separating safe imitation, productive divergence, harmful divergence, and agreement-on-failure. In an eight-seed mathematical-reasoning study with a Qwen3-8B student and Qwen3-32B teacher, agreement-on-failure constitutes 67.84% of pooled response-token mass; with a Qwen2.5-7B/32B pair it remains 67.68%. The result persists across threshold, sequence-level, format, and truncation audits. Even on prompts that the Qwen3 teacher solves in all four independent attempts, student accuracy rises to 86.91% but agreement-on-failure remains 14.76%. We then run three matched training probes that use the available signals to imitate, mask, or contrast whole trajectories; none consistently reduces agreement-on-failure. The result points to a localization limitation: local divergence paired with a trajectory-level outcome does not identify where a failed trajectory became unrecoverable. Addressing this limitation requires additional positional information, such as process labels, teacher continuations from student prefixes, or token-level alignment across rollouts. Our contribution is therefore diagnostic rather than a new training method.
Abstract:On-policy distillation (OPD) trains a student on its own trajectories while a teacher supplies dense token-level likelihoods at student-visited prefixes. These likelihoods are often read locally: agreement appears safe to imitate, whereas disagreement appears to identify an error. We show that both readings are confounded by the outcome of the completed trajectory. We introduce an outcome-resolved diagnostic that crosses pointwise teacher-student divergence with final-answer correctness, separating safe imitation, productive divergence, harmful divergence, and agreement-on-failure. In an eight-seed mathematical-reasoning study with a Qwen3-8B student and Qwen3-32B teacher, agreement-on-failure constitutes 67.84% of pooled response-token mass; with a Qwen2.5-7B/32B pair it remains 67.68%. The result persists across threshold, sequence-level, format, and truncation audits. Even on prompts that the Qwen3 teacher solves in all four independent attempts, student accuracy rises to 86.91% but agreement-on-failure remains 14.76%. We then run three matched training probes that use the available signals to imitate, mask, or contrast whole trajectories; none consistently reduces agreement-on-failure. The result points to a localization limitation: local divergence paired with a trajectory-level outcome does not identify where a failed trajectory became unrecoverable. Addressing this limitation requires additional positional information, such as process labels, teacher continuations from student prefixes, or token-level alignment across rollouts. Our contribution is therefore diagnostic rather than a new training method.
Machine Learning (cs.LG)
arXiv:2607.23731 [cs.LG]
(or arXiv:2607.23731v1 [cs.LG] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2607.23731 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
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