No Data Is Not No Risk: Visibility Aware Graph-Based Inference of Business Conduct Risk

Abstract:The monitoring of business conduct risk is hindered by sparse, uneven, and visibility-biased data. Prior studies show that business conduct risk information and media coverage propagate through supply chain, peer, and corporate structure networks, yet incident records remain incomplete for many firms. As a result, the absence of reported events could reflect limited coverage rather than the absence of underlying business conduct risk. This paper examines whether inter-firm relationships can improve the prediction of future recorded conduct related incidents, particularly among firms with limited prior visibility. We formulate the task as Positive--Unlabeled node classification on a corporate ownership graph, where firms with recorded incidents are treated as labeled positives and firms without recorded incidents remain unlabeled. We then propose a visibility- and relation-aware GCNII framework that combines relation specific message passing with non-negative Positive--Unlabeled learning to account for positive contamination in the unlabeled set. In a forward-looking evaluation, the proposed approach achieved the strongest observed ranking performance relative to non-graph- and simple graph-based benchmarks. The results further show that graph-based inference retains its predictive value among firms without prior recorded incidents. These findings demonstrate the value of inter-firm relational structure as a complementary source of information for extending risk prioritization

Risk Management (q-fin.RM); Machine Learning (cs.LG)

arXiv:2607.26859 [q-fin.RM]

(or arXiv:2607.26859v1 [q-fin.RM] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2607.26859 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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