aiqbench analysis
Neptune introduces a novel deep learning framework using CNNs and Spherical Fourier Neural Operators to emulate global ocean dynamics for subseasonal forecasting, offering a computationally efficient alternative to traditional physics-based models. By successfully reproducing complex spatio-temporal patterns up to 60 days, this approach demonstrates significant potential for accelerating climate prediction workflows in critical sectors like agriculture and disaster management.
Neptune: An AI model for Global Ocean Subseasonal Prediction
arXiv:2609.08606v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting is societally critical, supporting decision-making in sectors ranging from water and agricultural management to disaster risk reduction, energy planning, and insurance. Achieving reliable predictions at these timescales requires representing the ocean and its dynamics, but traditional physics-based Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs), are computationally expensive and difficult to develop and improve because of the code complexity. In this work, we propose Neptune, an end-to-end data-driven framework for global ocean and sea-ice components emulation tailored for S2S timescales, up to 60 days. Neptune combines Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Spherical Fourier Neural Operators (SFNOs) to effectively capture local features and global cross-scale interactions, thereby obtaining a coherent representation of the ocean state. Forced by prescribed daily atmospheric fields, Neptune emulates ocean state variables, from temperature and salinity, to zonal and meridional currents, from sea surface height to sea ice thickness and concentration, with daily outputs at the ocean surface and through the water column. Specifically, we propose two variants of Neptune, Neptune-1 and Neptune-025, capable of emulating the ocean state at 1{\deg} and 0.25{\deg} resolution, respectively. Evaluated against a suite of metrics, including statistics (RMSE, CRPS and ACC), physical coherency (Ocean Heat Content, Eddy Kinetic Energy and Ice Brier Score) and climate indices (ENSO and Z20 metric, IOD), Neptune successfully reproduces the spatio-temporal evolution of the oceanic fields up to 60 days, and is stable over long timescales. Neptune provides compelling evidence that end-to-end data-driven ocean emulators can become a powerful component of next-generation S2S forecasting systems, emulating ocean state at high spatio-temporal resolution.
Authors:Davide Donno, Italo Epicoco, Massimo Cafaro, Gabriele Accarino, Mohammad M. Amirian, Viviana Acquaviva, Paola Nassisi, Doroteaciro Iovino, Annalisa Bracco, Simona Masina, Pierre Gentine
Abstract:Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting is societally critical, supporting decision-making in sectors ranging from water and agricultural management to disaster risk reduction, energy planning, and insurance. Achieving reliable predictions at these timescales requires representing the ocean and its dynamics, but traditional physics-based Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs), are computationally expensive and difficult to develop and improve because of the code complexity. In this work, we propose Neptune, an end-to-end data-driven framework for global ocean and sea-ice components emulation tailored for S2S timescales, up to 60 days. Neptune combines Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Spherical Fourier Neural Operators (SFNOs) to effectively capture local features and global cross-scale interactions, thereby obtaining a coherent representation of the ocean state. Forced by prescribed daily atmospheric fields, Neptune emulates ocean state variables, from temperature and salinity, to zonal and meridional currents, from sea surface height to sea ice thickness and concentration, with daily outputs at the ocean surface and through the water column. Specifically, we propose two variants of Neptune, Neptune-1 and Neptune-025, capable of emulating the ocean state at 1° and 0.25° resolution, respectively. Evaluated against a suite of metrics, including statistics (RMSE, CRPS and ACC), physical coherency (Ocean Heat Content, Eddy Kinetic Energy and Ice Brier Score) and climate indices (ENSO and Z20 metric, IOD), Neptune successfully reproduces the spatio-temporal evolution of the oceanic fields up to 60 days, and is stable over long timescales. Neptune provides compelling evidence that end-to-end data-driven ocean emulators can become a powerful component of next-generation S2S forecasting systems, emulating ocean state at high spatio-temporal resolution.
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)
arXiv:2609.08606 [physics.ao-ph]
(or arXiv:2609.08606v1 [physics.ao-ph] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.08606 arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
Full text under the publisher's open licence · 302 words
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