Multimodal AI predicts clinical outcomes of drug combinations from preclinical data

arXiv:2503.02781v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Predicting clinical outcomes from preclinical data is essential for selecting safe and effective drug combinations and for reducing late-stage failures. AI models use molecular structure and target annotations, and do not leverage the perturbation readouts that report how a compound acts in a cellular context. Here we introduce Madrigal, a multimodal AI model that learns from structural, pathway, cell-viability, and transcriptomic data. Madrigal aligns these modalities across 21,842 compounds into a shared latent space and predicts combination outcomes even for drugs observed in only a subset of the data modalities. Trained on 158 expert-curated and 795 patient-reported combination outcomes, Madrigal outperforms single-modality and state-of-the-art multimodal methods. Ablations show that modality alignment and multimodal input each improve predictive performance. Madrigal predicts elevated risk for combinations that share membrane transporters. In head-to-head trials that compare two combination arms,the arm with the higher observed incidence of neutropenia, anemia, alopecia, or hypoglycemia receives the higher predicted risk in 25 of 28 comparisons. In MASH, Madrigal ranks resmetirom among the candidates with favorable predicted safety when paired with type 2 diabetes drugs. Madrigal also improves adverse-event prediction in a longitudinal patient cohort and an independent oncology cohort and predicts efficacy in primary acute myeloid leukemia samples and patient-derived xenografts.

Abstract:Predicting clinical outcomes from preclinical data is essential for selecting safe and effective drug combinations and for reducing late-stage failures. AI models use molecular structure and target annotations, and do not leverage the perturbation readouts that report how a compound acts in a cellular context. Here we introduce Madrigal, a multimodal AI model that learns from structural, pathway, cell-viability, and transcriptomic data. Madrigal aligns these modalities across 21,842 compounds into a shared latent space and predicts combination outcomes even for drugs observed in only a subset of the data modalities. Trained on 158 expert-curated and 795 patient-reported combination outcomes, Madrigal outperforms single-modality and state-of-the-art multimodal methods. Ablations show that modality alignment and multimodal input each improve predictive performance. Madrigal predicts elevated risk for combinations that share membrane transporters. In head-to-head trials that compare two combination arms,the arm with the higher observed incidence of neutropenia, anemia, alopecia, or hypoglycemia receives the higher predicted risk in 25 of 28 comparisons. In MASH, Madrigal ranks resmetirom among the candidates with favorable predicted safety when paired with type 2 diabetes drugs. Madrigal also improves adverse-event prediction in a longitudinal patient cohort and an independent oncology cohort and predicts efficacy in primary acute myeloid leukemia samples and patient-derived xenografts.

Quantitative Methods (q-bio.QM); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI); Machine Learning (cs.LG)

arXiv:2503.02781 [q-bio.QM]

(or arXiv:2503.02781v3 [q-bio.QM] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2503.02781 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite

arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website.

Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them.

Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs.

aiqbench analysis

Multimodal AI predicts clinical outcomes of drug combinations from preclinical data

Related coverage