aiqbench analysis
This research introduces the Task-Aware Attentive Neural Process (TA-ANP), a probabilistic framework designed to infer global traffic states from sparse sensor data while providing reliable uncertainty quantification. By leveraging meta-learning and multi-query attention mechanisms, the model adapts to changing sensing configurations without retraining, effectively handling conflicts between real-time estimation and forecasting subtasks. The study validates this approach on a large-scale urban dataset, demonstrating improved efficiency in fixed-sensor placement through well-calibrated uncertainty metrics.
Metropolis-Scale Resilient and Trustworthy Traffic Flow Inference Using Multi-Source Data
arXiv:2605.25004v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Inferring network-wide traffic states from sparse observations with high accuracy and trustworthy uncertainty quantification is essential for intelligent transportation systems, yet it remains challenging due to the underdetermined nature of the problem, multifaceted disturbances in sensing networks, and the inherent conflicts among multiple inference subtasks when modeled jointly. We propose the Task-Aware Attentive Neural Process (TA-ANP), a unified probabilistic framework for resilient and trustworthy global traffic state inference (GTSI) by fusing floating car data (FCD) with sparse fixed-detector measurements. By casting GTSI as a stochastic process, TA-ANP leverages the meta-learning properties of neural processes to adapt rapidly to changes in sensing configurations without retraining. A task-aware multi-query attention module with distinct spatiotemporal inductive biases is introduced to handle three GTSI subtasks jointly ---real-time estimation at unobserved locations, forecasting at both observed and unobserved locations---while mitigating cross-task interference. For uncertainty quantification, we combine neural processes with Monte Carlo Dropout to capture both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. To support metropolis-scale evaluation, we construct the Metropolitan Multi-Source Traffic Dataset (MMTD), integrating fixed-loop sensor measurements, FCD statistics, and OpenStreetMap road-network data over an urban network of 26,166 road segments, including 2,371 fixed-sensor-equipped segments used for quantitative evaluation. Experiments across multiple independently generated sensor configurations show that TA-ANP achieves best performance across all subtasks under deterministic and probabilistic metrics. The resulting well-calibrated uncertainties enable more efficient fixed-sensor placement with fewer sensor deployments.
Abstract:Inferring network-wide traffic states from sparse observations with high accuracy and trustworthy uncertainty quantification is essential for intelligent transportation systems, yet it remains challenging due to the underdetermined nature of the problem, multifaceted disturbances in sensing networks, and the inherent conflicts among multiple inference subtasks when modeled jointly. We propose the Task-Aware Attentive Neural Process (TA-ANP), a unified probabilistic framework for resilient and trustworthy global traffic state inference (GTSI) by fusing floating car data (FCD) with sparse fixed-detector measurements. By casting GTSI as a stochastic process, TA-ANP leverages the meta-learning properties of neural processes to adapt rapidly to changes in sensing configurations without retraining. A task-aware multi-query attention module with distinct spatiotemporal inductive biases is introduced to handle three GTSI subtasks jointly ---real-time estimation at unobserved locations, forecasting at both observed and unobserved locations---while mitigating cross-task interference. For uncertainty quantification, we combine neural processes with Monte Carlo Dropout to capture both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. To support metropolis-scale evaluation, we construct the Metropolitan Multi-Source Traffic Dataset (MMTD), integrating fixed-loop sensor measurements, FCD statistics, and OpenStreetMap road-network data over an urban network of 26,166 road segments, including 2,371 fixed-sensor-equipped segments used for quantitative evaluation. Experiments across multiple independently generated sensor configurations show that TA-ANP achieves best performance across all subtasks under deterministic and probabilistic metrics. The resulting well-calibrated uncertainties enable more efficient fixed-sensor placement with fewer sensor deployments.
Machine Learning (cs.LG); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)
arXiv:2605.25004 [cs.LG]
(or arXiv:2605.25004v2 [cs.LG] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2605.25004 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2026.106083 Focus to learn more DOI(s) linking to related resources
arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website.
Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them.
Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs.
Full text under the publisher's open licence · 332 words