MAGPIE-Net: Predicting short-duration heavy-rainfall events in station neighborhoods from multitemporal FY-4A AGRI observations

Abstract:Short-duration heavy-rainfall warning determines whether 1 h rainfall will exceed a threshold within a target-station neighborhood over the next few hours. Multitemporal infrared and water-vapor observations from the Fengyun-4A Advanced Geostationary Radiation Imager (FY-4A AGRI) capture cloud-top cooling, moisture evolution, and cloud expansion before substantial surface rainfall develops. However, most deep-learning nowcasting methods convert these signals into local warnings by post-processing gridded precipitation predictions, preventing station-neighborhood event targets from directly supervising the satellite-to-station learning pathway. We propose MAGPIE-Net, which embeds a geographically adaptive, differentiable grid-to-station mapping in a pathway combining convection-initiation features, multiscale encoding, and auxiliary gridded precipitation diagnosis. Station-neighborhood event losses thereby constrain the satellite representation and its mapping to irregular station locations for 0-3 h event prediction. In independent 2023 warm-season tests over central and eastern China, critical success index (CSI) values under the primary 40 km/20 mm h-1 definition were 0.371, 0.304, and 0.238 at 0-1, 1-2, and 2-3 h. Across episodes, MAGPIE-Net achieved a detection rate of 65.1% and a mean lead time of 64.6 min, compared with 23.6% and 18.3 min for the best gridded-output baseline, and remained superior for smaller neighborhoods and the 50 mm h-1 threshold. During the critical early-warning stage, when antecedent 1 h rainfall within 40 km remained below 1 mm, MAGPIE-Net detected 51.9% of episodes with a mean lead time of 38.5 min. These results show that event-oriented satellite-to-station modeling converts multitemporal geostationary cloud and moisture observations into local heavy-rainfall warnings more effectively than gridded-precipitation modeling.

Machine Learning (cs.LG)

arXiv:2608.17753 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2608.17753v1 [cs.LG] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2608.17753 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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