Macroeconomic Implications of New Energy Outlook Pathways

The global energy system is changing rapidly. Technological advances are reshaping how energy is produced and consumed, while geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions and a changing climate have exposed the dangers of relying on an increasingly vulnerable fossil-fuel system. In New Energy Outlook 2026, BloombergNEF maps three pathways for how this energy transition could unfold through 2050: a technology-led Economic Transition Scenario (ETS), a credible maximum-effort Net Zero Scenario (NZS), and a No Transition Scenario (NTS), in which decarbonization largely stalls. This report answers a simple question: what do those different energy futures mean for the global economy? BNEF partnered with Bloomberg Economics to embed these energy pathways in a global, computable general equilibrium model. We find that…