Looking Complete Is Not Being Grounded: Evaluating LLM Sitreps Against Human-Authored Situation Reports

Abstract:Evaluation for automatic crisis reporting should measure what practitioners need, not what is convenient to compare. Through LLM-assisted, author-approved content analysis, we derive a 15-slot information schema from professional humanitarian situation reports using qualitative content analysis, then evaluate 121 human and 261 LLM-generated reports across five disasters and three hazard types. Under google/gemini-3.7-flash on Cyclone Idai, the best machine arm is nominally above the empirical human ceiling (0.827 vs. 0.821), but the difference is statistically indistinguishable from zero (95\% bootstrap CI $[-.049,.059]$; permutation $p=.852$), and the ordering does not replicate under openai/gpt-5.6-luna. On a blind 100-item Idai sample, the author agrees with the Gemini judge at 0.910 accuracy and unweighted Cohen's $\kappa=.799$. All four judges clear the plan's raw-agreement criterion of .7; only Gemini reaches .7 on chance-corrected $\kappa$. Across the three primary events, machine reports reproduce 5.4-11.0% of same-day official figures. Across those same events, raw exact-number matching links 14.3-19.6% of official figures and 85.4-90.1% of machine figures to the social stream; manual audit confirms 45/50 declared absences, 4/25 official matches, and 24/25 machine matches semantically. The issuing-provenance gap is positive in all 12 observed event-judge cells: report date, organisation, series, and authority were not supplied at professional-report coverage in any cell. On the three primary events, ROUGE-L is uninformative, BERTScore is negatively associated with completeness after multiplicity correction, and a generic LLM judge changes sign.

Computation and Language (cs.CL); Computers and Society (cs.CY); Social and Information Networks (cs.SI)

arXiv:2610.18762 [cs.CL]

(or arXiv:2610.18762v1 [cs.CL] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.18762 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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