Long-term Traffic Scene Prediction via Polynomial Representations in Autonomous Driving

Abstract:This thesis addresses fundamental challenges in traffic scene prediction for autonomous driving by introducing robust and computationally efficient models based on polynomial representations. While conventional sequence-based representations often struggle with noise and generalization, this work demonstrates that polynomial representations offer significant advantages in computational efficiency, generalization, and prediction plausibility. Through theoretical analysis and empirical validation, this thesis demonstrates that moderate-degree polynomials capture real-world motion dynamics with high fidelity without constraining predictive performance. Building on this foundation, a prediction model representing both trajectories and map geometry with polynomial representations achieves near state-of-the-art accuracy on standard benchmarks while substantially improving generalization under distribution shift. Extending this concept, a diffusion- based generative framework enables multi-agent scene generation, producing traffic continuations that are more plausible and kinematically consistent than those generated by conventional baselines. Evaluations on the Argoverse 2 and Waymo Open datasets confirm that polynomial representations reduce computational cost, enhance cross-dataset generalization, and yield smoother trajectories and higher behavioral plausibility. The findings reveal that standard in-distribution evaluation and regression-based metrics may fail to reflect true model generalization and prediction plausibility. By providing theoretical justification and empirical validation, this dissertation estab- lishes polynomial trajectory representations as an efficient, expressive, and generalizable foundation for traffic scene prediction in safety critical autonomous driving.

Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)

arXiv:2608.03330 [cs.AI]

(or arXiv:2608.03330v1 [cs.AI] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2608.03330 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

https://doi.org/10.17169/refubium-53174 Focus to learn more DOI(s) linking to related resources

arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website.

Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them.

Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs.