Galaxy Securities: Overall coal supply and demand remain tight, pushing price levels higher

36Kr reports that a Galaxy Securities research note indicates China's overall coal supply and demand will be tight in 2026, driving up price levels. In the domestic market, following the 'anti-involution' overproduction checks in the second half of 2025, Indonesia's export restrictions in the first half of 2026, rising international energy prices due to US-Iran tensions, stricter safety supervision after coal accidents in Shanxi, and production resumption falling short of expectations, coal price levels have gradually risen over the past year. The report notes that supply constraints persist while demand for thermal coal and chemical coal is expected to increase compared to last year, suggesting further price hikes. In its mid-2026 strategy report, the firm forecasts an average market price for 5,500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao between 800 and 900 yuan per ton for all of 2026, higher than the 2025 annual average of 690 yuan per ton, with prices expected to surge further during peak winter demand periods.