Lithium carbonate prices hit year-to-date low; industry expects continued short-term volatility

As of the close on October 12, lithium carbonate futures for contract 2701 fell 11.79% to settle at 104,680 yuan per ton, breaking below the 110,000 yuan threshold and setting a new year-to-date low. Compared with the contract's peak of over 200,000 yuan per ton in mid-May, prices have nearly halved in less than six months. In the spot market, data from Shanghai Steel Union shows that on October 9, high-quality lithium carbonate traded between 120,500 and 122,000 yuan per ton, battery-grade lithium carbonate between 118,500 and 122,000 yuan per ton, and industrial-grade lithium carbonate between 116,500 and 120,000 yuan per ton. Industry insiders expect the lithium carbonate market to remain volatile in the short term, noting that attention should be paid to new fundamentals and macro variables. However, given that the market is still undergoing rapid inventory drawdown, a sustained widening of the basis combined with supply disruptions at year-end from regions such as Africa and Jiangxi could lead to supply-demand mismatches, potentially stabilizing and triggering a rebound in lithium prices. Meanwhile, demand expectations are difficult to verify or falsify, making corrections to these expectations challenging and limiting price movements; however, if negative feedback emerges, lithium carbonate prices could continue to decline.