aiqbench analysis
This study quantifies the crossover point where training a classical model becomes superior to using frozen LLMs for tabular data, finding that trained models outperform zero-shot prompting in 86% of cases with minimal labeled data. The research highlights the instability of few-shot prompting and confirms that collecting a small dataset to train gradient-boosted models remains the most efficient strategy for typical business prediction tasks.
Is It Still Worth Training a Classical Model in the Era of LLMs? A Crossover Benchmark on Tabular Data
arXiv:2609.20218v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models can label a tabular row from a plain-English description with no training - a capability now shipping in mainstream spreadsheet tools such as Microsoft Copilot in Excel and Anthropic's Claude for Excel - raising a practical question for the many business prediction problems where labels are expensive: should you prompt a frozen LLM, or collect data and train a model - and if so, how much data? We quantify the answer with the labeled-data crossover N*, the training-set size at which a trained classical model's learning curve overtakes a frozen LLM's training-free (and therefore flat) error. Aggregating 126 independent student evaluations of small GPT models under eight prompting configurations across 18 tabular datasets, paired with authoritative power-law learning curves for six classical model families, we find that training wins fast: even given an oracle choice of its best prompt configuration, a trained classical model beats the small frozen LLM using no more labeled data than is already on hand in 86% of cases, and wins by the smallest labeled subset we evaluate in 40%, with the observed crossover at a median of ~6% of the training set. In-context few-shot examples do not behave like training - error versus shot count does not follow a power law - and the same protocol re-run by independent implementers varies with a coefficient of variation of 0.148. A controlled probe indicates the LLM depends on recognizable feature-name semantics, which plausibly makes our crossover a conservative estimate (we do not claim memorization). For a typical business table, the evidence is clear: collect a few hundred labels and train a gradient-boosted model.
Title:Is It Still Worth Training a Classical Model in the Era of LLMs? A Crossover Benchmark on Tabular Data
Abstract:Large language models can label a tabular row from a plain-English description with no training - a capability now shipping in mainstream spreadsheet tools such as Microsoft Copilot in Excel and Anthropic's Claude for Excel - raising a practical question for the many business prediction problems where labels are expensive: should you prompt a frozen LLM, or collect data and train a model - and if so, how much data? We quantify the answer with the labeled-data crossover N*, the training-set size at which a trained classical model's learning curve overtakes a frozen LLM's training-free (and therefore flat) error. Aggregating 126 independent student evaluations of small GPT models under eight prompting configurations across 18 tabular datasets, paired with authoritative power-law learning curves for six classical model families, we find that training wins fast: even given an oracle choice of its best prompt configuration, a trained classical model beats the small frozen LLM using no more labeled data than is already on hand in 86% of cases, and wins by the smallest labeled subset we evaluate in 40%, with the observed crossover at a median of ~6% of the training set. In-context few-shot examples do not behave like training - error versus shot count does not follow a power law - and the same protocol re-run by independent implementers varies with a coefficient of variation of 0.148. A controlled probe indicates the LLM depends on recognizable feature-name semantics, which plausibly makes our crossover a conservative estimate (we do not claim memorization). For a typical business table, the evidence is clear: collect a few hundred labels and train a gradient-boosted model.
Machine Learning (cs.LG); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)
arXiv:2609.20218 [cs.LG]
(or arXiv:2609.20218v1 [cs.LG] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.20218 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
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Full text under the publisher's open licence · 385 words
