aiqbench analysis
This arXiv paper gives a solvable topic-model theory for why transformers may either memorise a finite mixture of training topics or learn in context to handle unseen topics. Its main claim is that the in-context predictor emerges early in training, while the specialised one appears only once training tokens exceed the parameters of the data-generating process, and that small transformers match these predicted scales without fitted parameters. For AI readers, the value is a principled, falsifiable account of generalisation strategy, though the results come from a toy setting and should be checked before being applied to large pretrained models.
In-Context Learning Before Specialisation: Theory of Learning in a Solvable Topic Model
arXiv:2610.21901v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Sequence models can generalise in fundamentally distinct ways: extrapolating structures seen in training, or using their prompt to adapt to novel tasks. The prevailing strategy determines how the model behaves beyond its training distribution, controlling potential capabilities and risks. Recent work has characterised many different strategies theoretically, and empirically described the transition between them as the quality and quantity of pretraining data vary. However, there is no learning theory for this competition, hence no fundamental understanding of \textit{why} one solution might be favoured over another. Here we provide such a theory in a solvable topic model---documents drawn from a finite mixture of latent topics, mirroring the heterogeneity of modern pretraining data. The dataset comes with two distinct solutions: a specialised predictor, that stores the finite topic mixture, and an in-context one, optimal for topics never seen during training. Our theory predicts their emergence at distinct sample complexities: the in-context predictor is available early, while the specialised one emerges only after the training tokens outnumber the parameters of the data-generating process. Trained transformers reproduce both scales and the separating crossover in remarkable agreement with the theory, with no fitted parameters.
Abstract:Sequence models can generalise in fundamentally distinct ways: extrapolating structures seen in training, or using their prompt to adapt to novel tasks. The prevailing strategy determines how the model behaves beyond its training distribution, controlling potential capabilities and risks. Recent work has characterised many different strategies theoretically, and empirically described the transition between them as the quality and quantity of pretraining data vary. However, there is no learning theory for this competition, hence no fundamental understanding of \textit{why} one solution might be favoured over another. Here we provide such a theory in a solvable topic model---documents drawn from a finite mixture of latent topics, mirroring the heterogeneity of modern pretraining data. The dataset comes with two distinct solutions: a specialised predictor, that stores the finite topic mixture, and an in-context one, optimal for topics never seen during training. Our theory predicts their emergence at distinct sample complexities: the in-context predictor is available early, while the specialised one emerges only after the training tokens outnumber the parameters of the data-generating process. Trained transformers reproduce both scales and the separating crossover in remarkable agreement with the theory, with no fitted parameters.
Machine Learning (cs.LG); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI); Machine Learning (stat.ML)
arXiv:2610.21901 [cs.LG]
(or arXiv:2610.21901v1 [cs.LG] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.21901 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website.
Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them.
Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs.
Full text under the publisher's open licence · 289 words
