HypLTSF: A Hyperbolic Geometric View of Multi-Scale Hierarchies for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting

arXiv:2609.08286v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multi-scale modeling has become an effective approach for long-term time series forecasting, capturing temporal patterns that range from fine-grained local dynamics to coarse global trends. Representations across these temporal scales are inherently hierarchical, with coarser scales abstracting and aggregating information from finer ones. While existing approaches readily exchange information across these scales, the hierarchy itself is typically left as an emergent byproduct of such interactions rather than captured as a geometric structure in its own right. In this paper, we introduce HypLTSF, a framework that endows the multi-scale hierarchy with a concrete geometric form by embedding scale-wise representations into the Poincar\'e ball, whose exponentially expanding volume naturally accommodates hierarchical structures. To align this geometry with the temporal hierarchy, HypLTSF imposes two constraints: (1) a radial constraint that orders embeddings by their level of abstraction, and (2) an angular constraint that groups fine-scale patterns sharing a common coarser-scale ancestor. Extensive experiments on long-term time series forecasting benchmarks show that HypLTSF achieves state-of-the-art performance, suggesting that explicitly modeling the multi-scale hierarchy as a geometric structure is effective for forecasting.

Abstract:Multi-scale modeling has become an effective approach for long-term time series forecasting, capturing temporal patterns that range from fine-grained local dynamics to coarse global trends. Representations across these temporal scales are inherently hierarchical, with coarser scales abstracting and aggregating information from finer ones. While existing approaches readily exchange information across these scales, the hierarchy itself is typically left as an emergent byproduct of such interactions rather than captured as a geometric structure in its own right. In this paper, we introduce HypLTSF, a framework that endows the multi-scale hierarchy with a concrete geometric form by embedding scale-wise representations into the Poincaré ball, whose exponentially expanding volume naturally accommodates hierarchical structures. To align this geometry with the temporal hierarchy, HypLTSF imposes two constraints: (1) a radial constraint that orders embeddings by their level of abstraction, and (2) an angular constraint that groups fine-scale patterns sharing a common coarser-scale ancestor. Extensive experiments on long-term time series forecasting benchmarks show that HypLTSF achieves state-of-the-art performance, suggesting that explicitly modeling the multi-scale hierarchy as a geometric structure is effective for forecasting.

Machine Learning (cs.LG)

arXiv:2609.08286 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2609.08286v1 [cs.LG] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.08286 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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HypLTSF: A Hyperbolic Geometric View of Multi-Scale Hierarchies for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting

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