How Good Are Time-Series Foundation Models for Pedestrian Crowd Count Forecasting? A Cross-Dataset Comparative Study

Title:How Good Are Time-Series Foundation Models for Pedestrian Crowd Count Forecasting? A Cross-Dataset Comparative Study

Abstract:Pedestrian-count forecasting supports pedestrian-oriented Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), including crowd monitoring, pedestrian-traffic staffing and routing, and proactive risk mitigation during surges. Recent time-series foundation models (FMs) report strong zero-shot accuracy on heterogeneous forecasting benchmarks, but it remains unclear whether these gains transfer reliably to pedestrian sensing deployments. We benchmark seven univariate forecasting approaches spanning four paradigms: Seasonal Naive, gradient-boosted trees (LightGBM, CatBoost), deep learning models (N-HiTS, PatchTST), and two pretrained FMs (TimesFM, Chronos-2). Experiments cover two complementary regimes: (i) a five-day special event dataset SAIL2025 at 3-minute resolution with limited in-domain history; and (ii) Melbourne pedestrian sensors as a multi-year hourly dataset (2010--2017) with strong seasonality. We compare the MAE and RMSE results per sensor across datasets and multiple forecast horizons. Results show three consistent findings. First, with limited historical data, Seasonal Naive remains a strong baseline for long-horizon forecasting on high-volume sensors, while trained models can degrade when the next day differs substantially from prior days. Second, boosted trees can be competitive on lower-volume sensors but exhibit higher sensitivity on high-volume sensors under event-driven shift. Third, FMs excel in the seasonal and data-rich regime under long-context configuration. The findings highlight the importance of choosing pedestrian forecasting models based on both the underlying data conditions and the forecasting horizon.

Machine Learning (cs.LG); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)

arXiv:2609.16415 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2609.16415v1 [cs.LG] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.16415 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website.

Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them.

Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs.