aiqbench analysis
This paper introduces Query--Anchor Agreement (QAA), a novel diagnostic method for optimizing sampling budgets in hypergraph-based models that forecast scientific connections within publication networks. By aligning model predictions with historical examples without requiring future labels, QAA improves the efficiency of identifying promising research leads in domains like material science and drug repurposing. The approach addresses a key limitation in current embedding models where performance degrades due to suboptimal sampling strategies.
Historical Anchors for Scientific Forecasting on Human-Aware Knowledge Graphs
arXiv:2610.14023v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Predicting which scientific connections will form next can point researchers toward the most promising leads. One successful approach learns representations by sampling paths through publication networks, represented by a hypergraph, that connect scientific entities, concepts, and researchers, approximating how knowledge and expertise move through the literature. Sampled paths are then used to train an embedding model to forecast scientific connections such as a property of a material. Performance, however, depends strongly on how many paths are sampled: too little sampling yields incomplete representations, while further sampling can eventually weaken prediction quality. The best sampling budget is therefore often identifiable only after future discoveries are known. We introduce Query--Anchor Agreement (QAA), a diagnostic requiring no future labels or separately trained model. QAA can be used to select a sampling budget, and refine or re-rank the resulting forecast to improve forecasting scientific connections. QAA compares the candidates a model predicts for a target with those most similar to the target's known historical examples, and identifies when these two views converge. Across thermoelectric-material and COVID-19 drug-repurposing benchmarks, repeated random-seed runs, and three sampling policies, QAA-selected budgets fall on average 1.86 percentage points below hindsight-optimal selection for broad candidate recovery. Further, promoting candidates supported by both views, under a capped fusion that bounds the anchor contribution, improves broad recovery across all six benchmark-policy settings, which define the types of network walks used for sampling.
Important: e-prints posted on arXiv are not peer-reviewed by arXiv; they should not be relied upon without context to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information without consulting multiple experts in the field.
Abstract:Predicting which scientific connections will form next can point researchers toward the most promising leads. One successful approach learns representations by sampling paths through publication networks, represented by a hypergraph, that connect scientific entities, concepts, and researchers, approximating how knowledge and expertise move through the literature. Sampled paths are then used to train an embedding model to forecast scientific connections such as a property of a material. Performance, however, depends strongly on how many paths are sampled: too little sampling yields incomplete representations, while further sampling can eventually weaken prediction quality. The best sampling budget is therefore often identifiable only after future discoveries are known. We introduce Query--Anchor Agreement (QAA), a diagnostic requiring no future labels or separately trained model. QAA can be used to select a sampling budget, and refine or re-rank the resulting forecast to improve forecasting scientific connections. QAA compares the candidates a model predicts for a target with those most similar to the target's known historical examples, and identifies when these two views converge. Across thermoelectric-material and COVID-19 drug-repurposing benchmarks, repeated random-seed runs, and three sampling policies, QAA-selected budgets fall on average 1.86 percentage points below hindsight-optimal selection for broad candidate recovery. Further, promoting candidates supported by both views, under a capped fusion that bounds the anchor contribution, improves broad recovery across all six benchmark-policy settings, which define the types of network walks used for sampling.
Machine Learning (cs.LG)
arXiv:2610.14023 [cs.LG]
(or arXiv:2610.14023v1 [cs.LG] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.14023 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website.
Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them.
Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs.
Full text under the publisher's open licence · 367 words
