Goal-Oriented Reactive Simulation for Closed-Loop Trajectory Prediction

Abstract:Current trajectory prediction models are primarily trained in an open-loop manner, which often leads to covariate shift and compounding errors when deployed in real-world, closed-loop settings. Furthermore, relying on static datasets or non-reactive log-replay simulators severs the interactive loop, preventing the ego agent from learning to actively negotiate surrounding traffic. In this work, we propose an on-policy closed-loop training paradigm optimized for high-frequency, receding horizon ego prediction. To ground the ego prediction in a realistic representation of traffic interactions and to achieve reactive consistency, we introduce a goal-oriented, transformer-based scene decoder, resulting in an inherently reactive training simulation. By exposing the ego agent to a mixture of open-loop data and simulated, self-induced states, the model learns recovery behaviors to correct its own execution errors. Extensive evaluation demonstrates that closed-loop training significantly enhances collision avoidance capabilities at high replanning frequencies, yielding relative collision rate reductions of up to 27.0% on nuScenes and 79.5% in dense DeepScenario intersections compared to open-loop baselines. Additionally, we show that a hybrid simulation combining reactive with non-reactive surrounding agents achieves optimal balance between immediate interactivity and long-term behavioral stability.

The core claim that the simulation becomes reactive does not hold, even though the findings on its effects on the ego vehicle remain valid. This claim was re-evaluated based on reviewer feedback, and the paper is therefore being retracted. However, the valid results regarding the effects on the ego vehicle are being merged into the parallel study: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.23393

Robotics (cs.RO)

arXiv:2603.24155 [cs.RO]

(or arXiv:2603.24155v3 [cs.RO] for this version)