Gaussian Approximation for Multivariate Martingale Sums from Uniformly Ergodic Markov Chains

arXiv:2609.09480v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We develop Gaussian approximation bounds in higher-order Wasserstein distance $W_p$, $p\geq2$, for sums of multivariate martingale differences generated by a uniformly ergodic Markov chain. Under an $L^{(2+\eta)p}$-moment condition with $\eta>0$, we establish the explicit bound $$ O\left( p^3 \|A\|_4^2 + pd^{1/4}\|A\|_2^{1/2}\|A\|_4^2 \right) $$ where $A\in\mathbb{R}^n$ collects the $L^{(2+\eta)p}$-sizes of the $n$ individual martingale increments. In the balanced-increment regime where the individual increments have comparable sizes of order $n^{-1/2}$, it yields the first optimal $O(n^{-1/2})$ Gaussian approximation rate for fixed $p$ and $d$. Consequently, we also obtain the first optimal $O(n^{-1/2})$ $W_p$ Gaussian approximation rate for multivariate additive functionals of uniformly ergodic Markov chains. Our analysis develops two techniques for addressing the interplay between higher-order Wasserstein distance and temporal dependence. First, building on the Ornstein--Uhlenbeck relative-score approach of Fang and Koike (2023), we formulate the bound in terms of antisymmetric Stein couplings while retaining the conditional tensor structure. Second, we develop a refresh-then-maximal coupling that combines an independent first-step resampling, which preserves the desired Stein identity, with a subsequent maximal coupling that provides effective control of the coupling increment. These tools may be useful more broadly for Gaussian approximation under temporal dependence.

Abstract:We develop Gaussian approximation bounds in higher-order Wasserstein distance $W_p$, $p\geq2$, for sums of multivariate martingale differences generated by a uniformly ergodic Markov chain. Under an $L^{(2+\eta)p}$-moment condition with $\eta>0$, we establish the explicit bound $$ O\left( p^3 \|A\|_4^2 + pd^{1/4}\|A\|_2^{1/2}\|A\|_4^2 \right) $$ where $A\in\mathbb{R}^n$ collects the $L^{(2+\eta)p}$-sizes of the $n$ individual martingale increments. In the balanced-increment regime where the individual increments have comparable sizes of order $n^{-1/2}$, it yields the first optimal $O(n^{-1/2})$ Gaussian approximation rate for fixed $p$ and $d$. Consequently, we also obtain the first optimal $O(n^{-1/2})$ $W_p$ Gaussian approximation rate for multivariate additive functionals of uniformly ergodic Markov chains. Our analysis develops two techniques for addressing the interplay between higher-order Wasserstein distance and temporal dependence. First, building on the Ornstein--Uhlenbeck relative-score approach of Fang and Koike (2023), we formulate the bound in terms of antisymmetric Stein couplings while retaining the conditional tensor structure. Second, we develop a refresh-then-maximal coupling that combines an independent first-step resampling, which preserves the desired Stein identity, with a subsequent maximal coupling that provides effective control of the coupling increment. These tools may be useful more broadly for Gaussian approximation under temporal dependence.

Probability (math.PR); Machine Learning (cs.LG); Machine Learning (stat.ML)

arXiv:2609.09480 [math.PR]

(or arXiv:2609.09480v1 [math.PR] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.09480 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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Gaussian Approximation for Multivariate Martingale Sums from Uniformly Ergodic Markov Chains

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