From Order to Distribution: An Exact Operator Framework for Forgetting in Continual Learning

Abstract:A central challenge in continual learning is forgetting: the loss of performance on previously learned tasks after learning new ones. Prior theory has analyzed forgetting under random orderings of fixed task collections in overparameterized linear regression. We shift the focus from task order to task distribution, asking how its structure determines forgetting. In the linear setting with a shared solution, i.i.d. task sampling, and sequential exact fitting, we derive an exact operator identity expressing historical forgetting directly in terms of the task distribution. Building on this identity, we establish an exponential decay guarantee for expected historical forgetting under every fixed task distribution in finite dimensions, characterize its asymptotic behavior, and relate decay to the distribution's coverage of observable directions. For an individual learned task, we show that subsequent tasks can collectively support recovery without exact revisits. We derive a lower bound on recovery time and construct a task distribution attaining its inverse-coverage scaling.

34 pages, 3 figures. Revised analysis and proofs; new fixed-operator comparisons and recovery results

Machine Learning (cs.LG); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)

arXiv:2604.13460 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2604.13460v2 [cs.LG] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2604.13460 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite

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reproducibility/recovery/README.md

reproducibility/recovery/check_recovery_bounds.py

reproducibility/recovery/recovery_verification.json

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