From objective discovery to prediction of global ocean eco-provinces: A pathway for trustworthy learning

Abstract:Marine ecosystems are increasingly impacted by climate change, necessitating tools to identify and predict spatial habitat information. To build such tools, ecological marine provinces, "eco-provinces", ecologically meaningful regions in the global ocean can be used. We use unsupervised machine learning (ML) to identify eco-provinces with corresponding uncertainty measures based on output of a global simulation of phytoplankton functional types. Our work aims to create a proof of concept to predict eco-provinces based on satellite ocean color data. To do so, we develop a hierarchy of explainable dense ensemble networks to infer how well the eco-provinces can be detected from modeled ocean color fields. Key results include that the delineated eco-provinces are both ecologically meaningful and can be inferred with high skill. However, no straightforward relationship was found where adding more input data to the network consistently improves inference skill, and there is an intricate tradeoff between inputs and prediction fidelity. Our work is a case for optimism and a cautionary tale of needing uncertainty quantification and careful validation of prediction fidelity.

Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE); Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science (cs.CE); Machine Learning (cs.LG); Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph)

arXiv:2609.13206 [q-bio.PE]

(or arXiv:2609.13206v1 [q-bio.PE] for this version)