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This paper reframes LLM jailbreaking by mathematically linking the maximization of expected harmfulness with likelihood-based optimization, offering a unified probabilistic perspective on adversarial attacks. The authors introduce OPUR, a novel sampling distribution that leverages this connection to generate high-risk target outputs and guide input modifications more effectively than prior methods. These findings advance the theoretical understanding of model safety boundaries and provide a rigorous framework for evaluating robustness against sophisticated prompts.
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From Expected Harmfulness to Likelihood: A Probabilistic Reformulation of Jailbreaking LLM Agents

arXiv2 min read

arXiv:2610.09973v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: When the harmfulness of an LLM agent's output can be quantified, a natural jailbreaking objective is to maximize expected harmfulness over admissible input modifications. An alternative approach constructs or selects harmful target outputs and modifies the input to increase their likelihood. We establish a precise connection between these two approaches through a probabilistic reformulation. Specifically, we show that the gradient of the logarithm of expected harmfulness with respect to the input equals the expected input gradient of the model's log-likelihood under a harmfulness reweighted output distribution. This identity provides a unified interpretation of expected harmfulness and target likelihood optimization. Building on this connection, we propose OPUR, a sampling distribution designed to generate highly harmful target outputs and use the resulting samples to guide likelihood-based input optimization. Experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the resulting method in jailbreaking LLM agents.

Abstract:When the harmfulness of an LLM agent's output can be quantified, a natural jailbreaking objective is to maximize expected harmfulness over admissible input modifications. An alternative approach constructs or selects harmful target outputs and modifies the input to increase their likelihood. We establish a precise connection between these two approaches through a probabilistic reformulation. Specifically, we show that the gradient of the logarithm of expected harmfulness with respect to the input equals the expected input gradient of the model's log-likelihood under a harmfulness reweighted output distribution. This identity provides a unified interpretation of expected harmfulness and target likelihood optimization. Building on this connection, we propose OPUR, a sampling distribution designed to generate highly harmful target outputs and use the resulting samples to guide likelihood-based input optimization. Experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the resulting method in jailbreaking LLM agents.

Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)

arXiv:2610.09973 [cs.AI]

(or arXiv:2610.09973v1 [cs.AI] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.09973 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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Full text under the publisher's open licence · 232 words

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