Foundation Models and Fine-Tuning: Toward a New Generation of Models for Time Series Forecasting

Abstract:Inspired by recent breakthroughs in large language models for natural language processing, foundation models have emerged as a promising paradigm for zero-shot time series forecasting, enabling accurate predictions on datasets never seen during pre-training. Ranging from tens to hundreds of millions of parameters, these models are pre-trained on vast and diverse collections of time series, learning generalizable representations that support both point and probabilistic forecasting. This approach alleviates the need for dataset-specific model design and manual tuning, offering a unified solution across forecasting problems. In this work, we review the main architectures, pre-training strategies, and optimization methods underpinning these models. We further investigate post-pre-training fine-tuning of selected foundation models to enhance their performance on specific datasets. Our empirical results demonstrate that this step consistently improves forecasting accuracy over the zero-shot baseline.

Machine Learning (cs.LG)

arXiv:2607.23146 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2607.23146v1 [cs.LG] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2607.23146 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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