Financial Volatility and Risk Forecasting Incorporating a Larger Number of Realized Measures

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Abstract:Realised volatility has become increasingly prominent in volatility forecasting due to its ability to capture intraday price fluctuations. With a growing variety of realised volatility estimators, each with unique advantages and limitations, selecting an optimal estimator may introduce challenges. In this thesis, aiming to synthesise the impact of various realised volatility measures on volatility forecasting, we propose an extension of the Realised GARCH model that incorporates an autoencoder-generated synthetic realised measure, combining the information from multiple realised measures in a nonlinear manner. Our proposed model extends existing linear methods, such as Principal Component Analysis and Independent Component Analysis, to reduce the dimensionality of realised measures. The empirical evaluation, conducted across four major stock markets from January 2000 to June 2022 and including the period of COVID-19, demonstrates both the feasibility of applying an autoencoder to synthesise volatility measures and the superior effectiveness of the proposed model in one-step-ahead rolling volatility forecasting. The model exhibits enhanced flexibility in parameter estimations across each rolling window, outperforming traditional linear approaches. These findings indicate that nonlinear dimension reduction offers further adaptability and flexibility in improving the synthetic realised measure, with promising implications for future volatility forecasting applications.

Risk Management (q-fin.RM); Machine Learning (cs.LG); Econometrics (econ.EM)

arXiv:2411.17136 [q-fin.RM]

(or arXiv:2411.17136v2 [q-fin.RM] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2411.17136 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite

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